In today’s briefing:
- Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium
- Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
- Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal
- TMC – Progress Toward Commercial License Continues with 4Q27 Production Goal in Sight
- Permian Resources Inside Look: How Asset Quality & Smart Deals Can Power Future Outperformance!
- A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1
- CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!
- Western Midstream Partners: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!
- Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term
Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium
- Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
- The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
- Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.
Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
- Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
- We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
- Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.
Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal
- Context: The Woodside (WDS AU) vs. Yancoal (YAL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: With Yancoal experiencing a sharp price drop after reporting earnings last week, the historically well-aligned price ratio has spiked, generating a trading signal.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
TMC – Progress Toward Commercial License Continues with 4Q27 Production Goal in Sight
- 2Q25 results. TMC reported its 2Q25 financials, that included slightly higher operating loss of $22M vs. $20.3M in year-ago period, as lower exploration and development activities were offset by higher consulting costs and increased share-based compensation.
- Cash on hand of $115.8M was up sharply vs. $3.5M in 2Q24 reflecting strategic investment by Korea Zinc.
- Solid cash position. Pro forma cash position of $120.7M includes $8.8M in proceeds from May RDO and exercised warrants and a repayment of $3.8M credit facility that took place in early July, 2025.
Permian Resources Inside Look: How Asset Quality & Smart Deals Can Power Future Outperformance!
- Permian Resources’ second-quarter 2025 earnings reveal both strengths and challenges in the company’s current operational and strategic approach.
- A significant positive takeaway from Permian Resources’ performance is their robust operational execution, evident in achieving record low completion costs and the fastest well drilling in their history.
- Such efficiencies have enabled the company to revise their annual production guidance upwards, while reducing their capital expenditure guidance.
A Basket of High-Risk, High-Reward, Critical Metal Miners with Strategic Value – Pt 1
- Critical Minerals Outside of China Will Command A Strategic Premium
- As risk appetite in the mining sector increases, the biggest gains will be in the junior miners and exploration companies
- We highlight eight companies as a basket of such miners which should benefit from these trends
CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!
- CF Industries’ first half and second quarter of 2025 financial results reveal a mixture of operational successes and broader market challenges.
- The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion for the first half, evidencing strong operational performance amidst a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
- CF Industries has successfully launched the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Project, which began operations in July and is anticipated to generate significant returns due to tax benefits and low-carbon product premiums.
Western Midstream Partners: The 6 Key Drivers Shaping Its Performance in 2025 & Beyond!
- Western Midstream Partners, LP reported record financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025, achieving the highest adjusted EBITDA in the company’s history.
- The Delaware Basin emerged as a significant contributor to this success, with record oil, gas, and water throughput driving increased adjusted gross margin.
- Operational expenses remained stable compared to the previous quarter due to internal cost optimization efforts, which are expected to further reduce costs in subsequent quarters.
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term
- This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price.
- With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton.
- Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
