In today’s briefing:
- The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
- FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
- India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
- EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism
- RYAM US: Specialty Margins Shine Under New Reporting Structure Despite Period Headwinds
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/23] Henry Hub Surged on Bullish Summer Demand Outlook
- CAPT: LOI to Acquire Land Surrounding Cruz De Plata Project
- SCZ: Seasonally Weak Q1, Stronger Results Moving Forward
The Beat Ideas: Chambal Fertilisers – From Urea Giant to Agri-Solutions Powerhouse
- CFCL is shifting from a subsidy-driven urea player to a diversified Agri-inputs firm, with strong traction in crop protection, biologicals, and a INR 1,645 Cr TAN project. .
- This diversification reduces exposure to regulatory risks, enhances margins, and positions CFCL for long-term structural growth in high-value Agri-solutions
- With a near debt-free balance sheet and visibility on INR 900–1,000 Cr revenue from TAN, we now view CFCL as a multi-engine growth story beyond commoditized urea.
FY 2025 Marks Shrinking Margins For Indian Tire Majors
- MRF stages recovery in margin in Q4, others suffer
- CEAT breaches US$1.51 billion for the first time in revenue in FY25
- High raw material costs eat into profits of majors
India Steel Monitor – May 2025: Prices Fall, Demand Weak, Outlook Diverges
- Steel prices declined for 5 straight weeks; long products like rebar and wire rod saw the steepest fall amid weak spot market sentiment.
- Companies expect higher Q1 FY26 realizations, but spot trends remain weak, highlighting a lag between optimism and transactional reality.
- Auto and housing demand is softening; only two-wheelers, EVs, and commercial real estate offer near-term support to steel consumption.
EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views
- Suzano to Acquire 51% of Kimberly-Clark’s International Tissue Business for $1.73bn
- Vista Priced US$500mn 2033 Unsecured Notes at Par to Yield 8.5% (IPT: mid-8%) / Cemex Launches US$1bn Perpetual NC5 Notes to Yield 7.2% (IPT: 7.625%)
- Telecom 1Q25: Margin Gains Support Credit, But Telefónica Deal Still Central / Telecom Prices US$800 Million Unsecured Bond Due 2033 at 9.5% Yield
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/23] WTI Rebounded on Supply Risks and Trade Optimism
- WTI futures rose 6.2% for the week ending 06/Jun, as supply disruption fears and U.S.-China trade optimism outweighed concerns over the OPEC+ output hike.
- The U.S. rig count fell by four to 559. The oil rig count fell by nine to 442, while gas rigs grew by five to 114.
- WTI OI PCR remained at 0.83 on 06/Jun compared to 30/May. Call OI rose by 4.1% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.9%.
RYAM US: Specialty Margins Shine Under New Reporting Structure Despite Period Headwinds
- 1Q25 one-time headwinds obscure improving business fundamentals.
- Unusual weather, plant-level operating challenges ahead of planned maintenance outages, and the impact of customer pre-buying in 4Q25 affected 1Q25 results, but are not likely to continue, suggesting sequential improvement in 2Q25 and more so in 2H25.
- New reporting structure highlights specialty-type margins.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/23] Henry Hub Surged on Bullish Summer Demand Outlook
- For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. natural gas prices gained 9.8% on the back of forecasts of a hotter-than-expected summer and rising LNG exports.
- For the week ending 30/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 122 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 111 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.85 on 06/Jun compared to 0.86 on 30/May. Call OI increased by 6% WoW, while put OI grew by 4.4%.
CAPT: LOI to Acquire Land Surrounding Cruz De Plata Project
- What you need to know: • Capitan Silver announced an LOI to acquire 100% ownership of the remaining land surrounding the Cruz de Plata Silver-Gold Project.
- • The transaction will consist of US$4.0M (in two installments) with no royalty or dilutive share payments.
- • We remind readers of the ongoing 10,000m drill program (results expected soon) and plans to update its MRE on the Oxide Gold Deposit.
SCZ: Seasonally Weak Q1, Stronger Results Moving Forward
- What you need to know: • Santacruz reported its Q1/25 production results, missing our expectations due to pronounced seasonality and various operational challenges which have now been resolved.
- • AgEq production came in at 3.7Moz compared to our estimate of 4.5Moz, representing -10% QoQ and -5% YoY.
- • SCZ is up 217% since our initiation report, yet still remains mispriced, in our view.
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