In today’s briefing:
- DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens
- [IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies
- Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks
- Evonik Industries: Initiation of Coverage- Will Methionine Market Tightness Trigger a Massive Upside Surprise?
- [ETP 2025/26] WTI Set for Deepest Weekly Drop Since March 2023; Henry Hub Slides on Tepid Demand
- Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April
- Valaris PLC: Fleet Optimization, Strategic Contracting & Key Growth Levers!
DXY Cracks 97: Commodity Stocks in Focus as Dollar Slide Deepens
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen sharply to 97.33, down over 10% year-to-date and hitting a fresh 1-year low.
- This decline is being driven by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, political uncertainty around central bank independence, and a broader shift in global risk appetite.
- Over the past two years, gold miners, aluminum, copper, and diversified metal stocks have shown the strongest inverse correlation with DXY.
[IO Technicals 2025/26] Bearish Momentum Intensifies
- Iron ore prices weakened due to rising Australian and Brazilian exports and subdued Chinese demand, while the UK prepares tighter steel import restrictions.
- Rio Tinto and Hancock Prospecting have secured approvals for a $1.6bn joint initiative in Western Australia, expected to produce 31 million tonnes of iron ore annually.
- Prices are still trading beneath critical moving averages, suggesting ongoing downside momentum, while the MACD below its signal line confirms the prevailing bearish trend.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fair Value Still 25% Higher Despite IPO Discount Risks
- Zijin plans to IPO its overseas gold unit, targeting 85t output in 2025; timeline not yet disclosed.
- SOTP values copper business at RMB 592 bn, gold at RMB 190–200 bn, lithium adds RMB 18–28 bn.
- Stock trades ~15–20% below intrinsic value, offering ~25–26% upside even without IPO re-rating.
Evonik Industries: Initiation of Coverage- Will Methionine Market Tightness Trigger a Massive Upside Surprise?
- Evonik Industries AG, a global leader in specialty chemicals, reported a positive performance in the first quarter of 2025.
- The company achieved a significant year-over-year increase in EBITDA and free cash flow, surpassing the prior year’s figures by over 50%.
- Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Evonik maintained its full-year guidance, buoyed by strong performance in its Specialty Additives and Nutrition & Care segments.
[ETP 2025/26] WTI Set for Deepest Weekly Drop Since March 2023; Henry Hub Slides on Tepid Demand
- For the week ending 20/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.2m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected.
- The EIA reported a 96 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted an 88 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.6% above the five-year average but 6.3% below year-ago levels.
- Shell denied reports of merger talks with BP. TD Cowen raised its price target on Exxon to USD 128, citing its technological edge in resource recovery and strategic deal-making capacity.
Tariff War, Weather Hit Thai Rubber Exports Hard In April
- Thailand’s rubber export value dips 18.58% MoM in April 2025
- Staggering 43.6% fall in Thai rubber imports value to China
- Rubber producers can now use trees as collateral for loans
Valaris PLC: Fleet Optimization, Strategic Contracting & Key Growth Levers!
- Valaris Ltd.’s first quarter of 2025 financial results indicate robust performance, showcasing both significant operational achievements and strategic initiatives.
- The company’s success in securing over $1 billion in new backlog contracts highlights its capability to align strategically with market opportunities, notably in lucrative regions such as West Africa.
- This aligns with Valaris’s broader commercial strategy that emphasizes contracting high-specification assets on attractive long-term terms, thus ensuring consistent revenue streams critical for sustaining financial health.
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