In today’s briefing:
- Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
- Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report
- Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- Boise Cascade Edge: How Two-Step Distribution Model Could Dominate the Housing Market!
- Civitas Resources: How Are They Optimizing Delaware Basin Operations?
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June
Crude Oil Reverts Back (Like We Predicted)
- During the past two weeks we highlighted that the upside for oil is only minimal and that trading the “war event” may be the rational thing to do.
- So far, this turned out to be the right call.
- Investment banks seem to be a bit more emotional about the topic.
Ampol (ALD AU) Vs. Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Mean Reversion Delivers Profit, Trade Exit
- Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
- Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June 2025 Report
- Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos and DLC mainly tightened during June. Coverage of CF Alba is discontinued following delisting. Discounts (30 June): GBL, 36% (vs. 37.9% on 30 May);
- Heineken Holding, 14% (vs. 12.5%); Industrivärden C, 10% (vs. 9.6%); Investor B, 12.1% (vs. 9.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 28% (vs. 29.5%); Rio DLC 20.9% (vs. 22.2%); Vivendi 44.9% (vs. 47.1%).
- What seems interesting (unchanged views): Heineken Holding, vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs. listed assets and Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).
Resources & Energy Group Limited – Small Scale Gold Production
- Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
- This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
- This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- US base oils demand could stay cautious amid signs of sufficient supplies to cover domestic requirements.
- Expectations of sufficient supply and seasonal slowdown in demand give buyers more leverage to hold back in face of recent volatility of crude oil prices and base oils margins.
- Buyers face challenge of balancing prospect of slowdown in demand in Q3 2025 with risk of weather-related supply disruptions.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia’s base oils prices recover versus gasoil prices as crude oil prices revert to levels in H1 June 2025.
- Recovery in light-grade base oils margins curbs pressure on refiners to adjust output of those supplies.
- Any moves to sustain base oils output at current levels would coincide with completion of most plant-maintenance work in the region.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 June
- Asia’s base oils demand could ease as lower crude oil prices curb prospect of refiners adjusting output or raising prices.
- Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in surplus supply in coming weeks adds to incentive to hold back and to procure top-up supplies on need-to basis.
- Demand for Group II heavy grades could get support from concern about tighter availability of Group I heavy neutrals because of upcoming plant-maintenance in southeast Asia and uncertainty about stability of flows from Iran.
Boise Cascade Edge: How Two-Step Distribution Model Could Dominate the Housing Market!
- Boise Cascade’s recent financial disclosures portray a mixed performance amid prevailing industry and economic challenges.
- The company’s consolidated first-quarter sales reached $1.5 billion, marking a 7% decrease compared to the previous year.
- Net income also witnessed a notable drop to $40.3 million or $1.06 per share, down from $104.1 million or $2.61 per share in the same quarter of 2024.
Civitas Resources: How Are They Optimizing Delaware Basin Operations?
- Civitas Resources recently reported its first quarter 2025 results, reflecting a blend of strategic initiatives and challenges tied to the volatile economic environment.
- The company, led by CEO Chris Doyle, has taken deliberate steps to adjust its capital expenditures, focusing on maintaining financial flexibility amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and macroeconomic uncertainties.
- These adjustments include reducing capital expenditures by approximately $150 million compared to 2024, thus emphasizing a strategy of capital discipline and controlled reinvestment rates without sustaining 2024 production levels.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 30 June
- Global Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay at elevated levels relative to feedstock and competing fuel prices.
- Group II heavy-grade prices maintain steep premium to Group I heavy-neutrals prices in Asia and especially in Europe.
- Group II heavy-grade price-strength extends to markets like India, even with recent strength in Group I prices in that market.
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