In today’s briefing:
- LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
- MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
- India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
- Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
- Hybridan Research: Coro Energy plc: Free to Focus
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes
- The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
- We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
- All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.
MSL: High ROCE, Strong Moat – Rides Energy Capex Surge
- Market leader with 55% share in seamless pipes, Rs2,400 Cr net cash, and stable Rs15,000–17,000/ton EBITDA backed by strong oil & gas demand.
- Efficient capital allocator delivering 20%+ ROCE, with consistent insider buying reflecting high promoter confidence.
- 26% profit CAGR over 5 years, yet trades at ~12x P/E, offering value in a structurally growing industry.
India’s Biggest Small-Cap Shell Game
- The Mahadev Betting Scam exposed the infiltration of illegal gambling money into the stock market, manipulating small-cap stocks through offshore shell companies and pump-and-dump strategies.
- This scandal demonstrates how vulnerable markets are to operator-driven speculation, leading to artificial stock price surges, which mislead investors and undermine market integrity, creating systemic risks.
- The episode emphasizes the need for heightened due diligence, transparency, and scrutiny of foreign portfolio investors, encouraging investors to be more cautious of unexplained stock movements and shell company involvement.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/16] Henry Hub Sinks on Milder Weather and Record Output
- For the week ending 17/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
- For the week ending 11/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 16 Bcf, which was lower than analyst expectations of a 24 Bcf increase.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.93 on 17/Apr compared to 0.95 on 11/Apr. Call OI increased by 2.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 0.3%.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
- Asia’s base oils demand could face more marked pressure as expectations of softer supply-demand fundamentals coincide with concern about economic slowdown and impact of US tariffs.
- Uncertainty about timing, size and impact of US tariffs adds to blenders’ incentive to maintain lower stocks.
- High base oils prices relative to feedstock and gasoil prices and relative to other regions add to incentive to hold back.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/16] WTI Rebounds on Improved Trade Outlook and Strong U.S. Demand
- WTI futures rose 4.1% for the week ending 17/Apr, driven primarily by U.S.-China trade talks and falling U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories.
- The U.S. rig count rose by two to 585. The oil rig count rose by one to 481, while gas rigs also grew by one to 96.
- WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.81 on 17/Apr from 0.80 on 11/Apr. Call OI decreased by 13% WoW, while put OI dropped by 11.9%.
Farmers Lock Horns With Scientists Over Rubber Clone Yields In India
- Farmers say RRII 400 clone series performs below par
- RRII Head rejects charges, tells farmers to follow guidance
- Kerala farmers demand introduction of GM crops
Hybridan Research: Coro Energy plc: Free to Focus
- A double line is drawn under the past, as its wholly owned subsidiary Coro Energy Duyung is being sold.
- It has a holding in the Mako Gas Field in Indonesia and the proposed disposal is to West Natuna Exploration Ltd (WNEL), a subsidiary of Conrad Asia Energy, that already has a 76.5% working interest in Mako.
- Whilst Coro has supported the asset for many years, recent GSA pricing and oil price movements have materially deteriorated the project economics and the Operator has not delivered material progress on key commercial milestones.
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