In today’s briefing:
- Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 August
- Q1 Follow-Up – MORESCO (5018 JP) – July 31, 2025
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August
- CNGR A/H Listing: Supplier for Tesla Looking to Expand Production
- Interview englisch – Desert Gold Ventures Inc. – 13.08.2025
- MSA: Large Beat on Q2 Financial Results
- APM: Q2 Financial Results Well Ahead of Expectations
- The Metals Company, Inc: Beyond Nodules
Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis
- With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
- Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
- Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August
- US Group II light-grade export-price premium to vacuum gasoil holds close to lows in Q1 2025.
- Lower base oils margins and drop in outright export prices suggest recent tightness of light-grade supplies is easing.
- Drop in export prices facilitates removal of any such surplus volumes, keeping fundamentals balanced for longer in domestic market.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 August
- Global base oils margins stay more mixed but mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain firm output of the lubricants feedstock.
- Fob Asia light-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil extends rise, while heavy-grades stay more rangebound.
- FOB Asia Group II light-grade price-premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 June 2025.
Q1 Follow-Up – MORESCO (5018 JP) – July 31, 2025
- In Q1 FY2026/2, MORESCO CORPORATION (hereinafter “MORESCO” or “the Company”) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 8,516 mn, up 3.2% YoY, driven by higher sales both in Japan and overseas.
- Although demand in the automotive sector, which accounts for approximately 45% of net sales, remained sluggish due to lower vehicle production in Japan and the U.S., the impact was absorbed overall, as the Company’s all-round strategy proved effective in promoting diversification across regions, products, and applications.
- Operating profit jumped 174.4% YoY to JPY 520 mn, but ordinary profit declined 1.9% YoY to JPY 441 mn, and net profit fell 4.9% YoY to JPY 237 mn, both weighed down by foreign exchange losses.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 August
- Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm in narrow range, even if down from highs in Q2 2025.
- Firm premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output of heavy grades even amid signs of rise in surplus supply.
- FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade price discount to CFR UAE prices rises to highest in more than a year.
CNGR A/H Listing: Supplier for Tesla Looking to Expand Production
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) , a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer, and labels itself as a new energy materials company.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
Interview englisch – Desert Gold Ventures Inc. – 13.08.2025
- West Africa’s gold belt has long been a hotspot for major discoveries, and Desert Gold Ventures’ SMSZ Project in Mali is shaping up to be something far bigger than just another deposit.
- With only 10% of its gold resources incorporated into its recent Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) and a strong projected IRR supported by a low all-in sustaining cost, the project is already showing the potential to become a multi-million-ounce mining camp.
- CEO Jared Scharf sees this as just the beginning, with a modular processing plant strategy enabling fast scalability, a pipeline of near-term oxide expansion opportunities, and exploration upside across more than 30 gold zones.
MSA: Large Beat on Q2 Financial Results
- Mineros reported Q2 financial results that came in well ahead of our expectations.
- MSA reported revenue of $182.4M (+37% YoY) vs. our estimate of $148.8M and OCF (after WC) of $59.8M vs. our estimate of $36.5M and $7.1M in Q2/24.
- MSA revised its cost guidance upward due to the higher gold prices and higher costs for the artisanal mining segment (margins maintained).
APM: Q2 Financial Results Well Ahead of Expectations
- Andean reported Q2 financial results that came in well above our expectations.
- The beat was driven by the higher metals prices and lower than expected costs.
- Revenue was $73.7M (+6% YoY) vs. our estimate of $64.7M.
The Metals Company, Inc: Beyond Nodules
- Last week, TMC hosted a Strategy Day geared toward retail investors, during which management unveiled the NORI-D PFS and an Initial Assessment (IA) of NORI (ex-NORI-D) and TOML resources.
- It also provided an opportunity for investors and analysts to meet and interact with senior management, TMC’s board members, offshore and onshore partners Allseas and Korea Zinc, and representatives of sponsoring nations of Nauru and Tonga.
- During the discussions, TMC provided a glimpse into its longer-term strategy of evolving from a polymetallic nodule collector to an integrated metal refiner and processor, as well as recycler, with the aim of recovering and recycling battery and scrap metals and selling recovered metals without the need to continually mine new deposits, highlighting once again the serious environmental and sustainability goals TMC is striving for.
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