In today’s briefing:
- Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions
- Brent Crude: Flying With Clouds Ahead. Or, When Supply Outruns the Tide
- Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage
Carved in Wood: Sidara’s Firm Offer, but Fragile Conditions
- Sidara’s 30p/share offer, backed by $450m funding and debt extension, is the only viable path; yet “Exceptional Conditions” make this deal unusually binary despite board support.
- The audit (clean FY24 balance sheet opinion by 31 Oct 2025) and A&E by 31 Dec 2025 are non-waivable gates; clearing both crystallizes 30p, missing either drives automatic lapse.
- Probability-Weighted target price stands at 24.9p; distressed entries retain compelling upside, but pre-existing holders rely heavily on successful completion. Break risk implies severe equity impairment if conditions fail.
Brent Crude: Flying With Clouds Ahead. Or, When Supply Outruns the Tide
- Major agencies now align on a possible consensus: the crude market is entering a phase of structural imbalance.
- Inventory builds and shifting producer strategies are setting the stage for a market environment not seen in years.
- Historical parallels suggest that the coming quarters may test price resilience more than recent memory.
Silver in Focus: Global Deficits, Japan’s Reliance, and Dowa’s Hidden Leverage
- Silver has rallied nearly 40% over the past year, outpacing other precious metals on the back of record industrial demand and renewed investor flows.
- Persistent structural deficits, led by solar PV and EVs, point to a supportive multi-year backdrop even if investment flows remain volatile.
- For Japan, Dowa Holdings’ 30% stake in Los Gatos offers the only meaningful listed exposure to primary silver mining, with earnings leverage that is underappreciated by the market.
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