Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Lynas Corp Ltd, Sumitomo Metal Mining, Iron Ore, MP Materials Corp, Martin Marietta Materials, Nabaltec AG, Pembina Pipeline , Prospech Ltd, Red Metal Ltd, Arrow Exploration Corp and more

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) is looking to raise up to US$488m in a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 9.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 5.5% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.
• August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.
• EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).

• China’s planned steel cuts may lift global prices, while India and Southeast Asia’s infrastructure demand sustains robust iron ore consumption.
• Managed money participants trimmed net long exposure to 18.5k lots last week, with overall futures and options open interest slipping by 0.8%.
• Bullish MA crossover and MACD confirm renewed buying interest and strengthen the case for higher near-term price momentum.

• MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025.
• The company has embarked on strategic partnerships with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Apple, marking a new chapter in its operational history.
• These partnerships serve as significant validations of MP Materials’ strategic mission and reflect substantial steps towards enhancing its supply chain capabilities and vertical integration.

• Martin Marietta, a leading supplier of building materials, demonstrated robust operational and financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, amid challenging weather and subdued residential demand.
• The company recorded several financial milestones, including an 8% year-over-year increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA to $630 million and a 35% EBITDA margin, up 170 basis points.
• Aggregates revenues rose by 6% to $1.32 billion, driven by sustained pricing momentum and effective cost management.

Nabaltec recorded subdued results in H125, due to an increasingly challenging market environment, with both revenue and EBIT decreasing 1.7% and 18.5% y-o-y, respectively, to €106.5m and €8.9m. Despite this, EBIT in Q225 rose 14.6% versus Q125, while revenue declined 5.3%. Management adjusted its FY25 guidance from 3–5% revenue growth to a decrease of up to 2%. This updated revenue guidance mirrors that of the chemical industry so far in 2025. However, Nabaltec reiterated its profit guidance for FY25, anticipating an EBIT margin of 7–9%, achieving 8.4% at H125 (FY24: 9.9%). We have, therefore, adjusted our FY25 estimates and valuation, while introducing FY26 estimates, to reflect both management’s guidance and the current environment in which Nabaltec operates. Our updated valuation for Nabaltec is €26.3 per share (down from €29.9/share), representing upside of around 99% to the current share price.

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 financial results present an intricate blend of growth potential and challenges.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA was reported at $1.013 billion, reflecting a 7% decline from the same period the previous year.
• Despite the downturn, Pembina remains optimistic about achieving its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $4.225 billion to $4.425 billion.

• Prospech Limited (ASX:PRS) is a junior explorer focused on the exploration and development of rare earths and copper-gold projects in Finland and Slovakia.
• The company’s flagship Korsnäs project is the most advanced with PRS growing the scale of the resource over the last year in addition to demonstrating promising, but early, minerology and metallurgical test work outcomes.
• With cash of ~$0.55m as of 30 June 2025, PRS appears to have funding to progress activities across the company’s portfolio of projects.

• Red Metal Limited (ASX:RDM) is a junior explorer with a suite of projects covering rare earths, copper and gold all of which are located within Australia.
• The company’s current flagship project is Sybella, which is a granite-hosted rare earths deposit located south-west of Mt Isa, Queensland.
• The company’s other projects are focused on copper and gold with several moving toward drilling over H2 2025.

• • 2Q25 production averaged 3,768 boe/d, impacted by water handling constraints and steeper-than-anticipated early declines at newly drilled wells.
• • Current WI production stands at ~4,200 boe/d, down from the July peak of 4,600–4,800 boe/d, which reflected initial flush output from AB-HZ5 and AB-HZ4.
• While first-month decline rates are steep, Arrow has observed that post-month-one declines are minimal.