In today’s briefing:
- Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
- POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal
- Peruvian Copper Supply Disruptions Gaining Momentum: Bullish Copper, Back To Over 10k USD This Week?
- Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive
Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
- With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
- Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
- The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.
POSCO Holdings (KRX: 005490.KQ | NYSE: PKX): Steel Giant in Transition with Deep-Value Appeal
- After peaking in 2021, POSCO’s performance has steadily weakened, with revenue and margins declining due to softer steel prices and macro headwinds.
- The group is gradually pivoting toward battery materials and EV supply chains via POSCO Future M, backed by large investments in lithium, cathodes, and green hydrogen.
- Despite near-term profitability pressure, the stock trades at just 0.5× book and ~4.7× EV/EBITDA, offering compelling value if its transition strategy plays out.
Peruvian Copper Supply Disruptions Gaining Momentum: Bullish Copper, Back To Over 10k USD This Week?
- This follows our insight, Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term.
- Informal miners are disrupting Peruvian copper transport at the Las Bambas (320 kt annual production) and Constancia (110 kt) mines owned by MMG (1208 HK) and Hudbay Minerals (HBM CN).
- Peru is the third largest copper producing country in the world (2.6 million tons or 10% of global production), and so following these disruptions is critical.
Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive
- Following nearly a year of being in the negative, China’s steel mill margins have finally turned positive, primarily driven by a decline in coking coal prices.
- Iron ore prices have bounced 3% WoW, to 96 USD/ton, due to short-lived positive sentiment. We reiterate a short-term bounce to the 100 USD/ton level.
- In the medium term, we anticipate iron ore prices declining to $85/ton by early next year, when Rio’s 120 million-ton Simandou project commences.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
