Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Predictive Discovery, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Fenix Resources , Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Crude Oil, Talga Group, Canyon Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Celanese Corp Series A and more

• After Perseus Mining (PRU AU) fielded a scrip option for 17.8%-held Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), I questioned whether Robex Resources (RXR AU) would exercise its matching rights. I was wrong. 
• Robex has “lifted its bid“, now 7.862 PDI for every Robex share. Under the revised Offer Robex will own 46.5% of the combined entity, down from 49%.
• PDI considers the new terms to be superior to Perseus’ tilt. Apparently, so do several of PDI’s largest shareholders.  Perseus has now terminated its binding proposal. Out of the picture?

• Under the revised merger terms, Robex Resources (RBX CN) shareholders would receive 7.862 Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) shares per Robex share (vs 8.667 previously). PDI shareholders get 53.5% of MergerCo.
• The Board has declared that Robex’s offer is superior to the Perseus scheme’s offer. Strangely, on a value basis, the Robex revised offer is still lower than the Perseus offer.
• Robex’s offer is mainly superior due to support from major PDI shareholders, who reportedly oppose a Perseus Mining (PRU AU) scheme, thereby lowering the likelihood of a revised Perseus offer. 

• Structural copper tightness, strong gold cash flows, and rising silver prices position Zijin for multi-year earnings growth and a valuation re-rating in 2026.
• Leadership transition reduces founder dependence, strengthens governance credibility, and enables multiple expansion as Zijin aligns with global copper-scarcity peers.
• Base valuation is HK$40–41; spot and peer convergence support HK$48–50, implying 35–40% upside with clear catalysts across copper expansions and gold stability.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presented a 3-year production plan, with iron ore shipments growing from 2.4 million tons in FY25 to 5.7 million tons in FY28 (midpoint guidance).  
• The company upgraded its FY26 production guidance to 4.2-4.8 million tons (from earlier 4.1 million tons), while maintaining its cash costs in the 70-80 AUD/ton range (C1 cash costs).  
• A feasibility study has commenced, which will take Fenix Resources (FEX AU) into the 6-10 million range from FY29—more details in a management conference call on 15th December. 

Highlights

• Exports dip nearly 7% YoY in September due to weak tire shipments

• President firm on SVAT removal, raising liquidity concerns

• EUDR compliance becomes key export test in days to come

• During the first nine months, total export earnings fell 5.97% to US$713.62 million, largely driven by a 16.3% drop in tire and tube shipments.

• Crude oil futures recovered from monthly lows Wednesday after reports that the US had seized a Venezuelan tanker, although fears over a massive surplus kept benchmarks at the low end of the December trading range.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.67/b (2042 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $61.94/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $59.02/b against a previous close of $58.25/b.
• Brent recovered from an intraday low $61.35/b after officials confirmed that the US Coast Guard had led an operation to seize the vessel carrying Venezuelan oil.

• Talga Group (OTCQX: TLGRF, ASX: TLG) is a global leader in the development and production of graphite battery materials.
• Its flagship product, Talnode -C, is a fast-charge graphite anode material made in Sweden with an ultra-low carbon footprint.
• The company’s battery material technologies enable anode manufacturing from both natural and recycled graphite.

Canyon Resources confirmed it remains on track to commission the Minim Martap bauxite project in line with previous expectations, as Cameroon returns to ‘business as usual’ following the presidential elections. It continues to aim for first production in early 2026 and first shipment around mid-2026. The company remains well capitalised, having completed a first tranche of the A$205m funding package, with the remainder expected to close in Q1 CY26. We maintain our project level valuation of A$735m, which adjusted for corporate overheads and pro forma net cash implies a value of A$0.35/share, before accounting for the project’s vast residual resource.

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported a quarter defined by strong operational execution, major portfolio reshaping, and continued balance sheet repair, offset by commodity volatility and execution risk in long-dated growth projects.
• The announced sale of OxyChem is a significant step toward concentrating the portfolio on oil and gas.
• Management noted that total resource potential has expanded from 8 billion BOE in 2015 to roughly 16.5 billion BOE today, while production has grown from about 650 MBOE/d to more than 1.4 MBOE/d.

• Celanese Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call outlined a mix of strategic initiatives and ongoing challenges facing the company.
• The company’s leadership, including CEO Scott Richardson and CFO Chuck Kyrish, focused on financial results, operational strategies, and future plans.
• Performance in the third quarter showcased some positive aspects.