In today’s briefing:
- Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification
- The Drill – The gameplan for peace in Ukraine
- The Beat Ideas: Gujarat Flurochemicals 2.0: From Fluoropolymer Powerhouse to Battery Technology
- ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?
- EUDR: EC Mandates Due Diligence For All In Rubber Supply Chain Except SMEs
- Cleveland-Cliffs: Ramping Up Automotive Sector Engagement To Catalyze Top-Line Growth!
- Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies
- What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 March 2025 (AMG Critical Materials | Vopak | Triodos Bank)
- NIM: Final Permit for Bulk Sample at Dominion Creek Received
- Will Oneok’s Mexico LNG Move Transform Their Future?
Rio Tinto (RIO LN/RIO AU): Thinking About Unification
- Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) shareholders will vote on Palliser’s AGM resolution to conduct an independent review on whether the potential unification is in the best interests of shareholders.
- Palliser and the Board’s arguments for and against unification focus on five factors: tax costs, post-unification share price, lack of scrip M&A, wastage of franking credits, and shareholder support.
- A Grant Thornton report supports unification. The board’s case is strong primarily on tax costs, while Palliser’s case is strong on post-unification share price, M&A, and franking credits.
The Drill – The gameplan for peace in Ukraine
- Hello, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on commodities and geopolitics.
- Trump is keeping us busy yet again, threatening to impose another 25 percentage points (which was pulled back a couple of hours later, as usual) on top of the steel and aluminum tariffs, targeting the Canadian car industry at the same time.
- By now, it’s very clear that his main agenda is to move jobs and factories to the U.S. by limiting imports—but the question remains: will he actually follow through?
The Beat Ideas: Gujarat Flurochemicals 2.0: From Fluoropolymer Powerhouse to Battery Technology
- GFL is executing a INR 6,000 crore capex plan through FY28 to expand into battery materials, fluorospecialties etc. with commercial production of Battery Chemicals expected to start in Q4 FY25.
- This marks a strategic shift from a cyclical chemicals business to a high-margin, clean energy materials play positioning GFL at the core of the EV value chain as China+1 sourcing.
- Company is becoming a structural clean-tech growth story. The business could double its revenue base and become global EV materials supplier over the next 3-4 years.
ArcelorMittal (MT US) Is Deep Discount to Indian Mills Warranted?
- ArcelorMittal (MT US) reported an EBITDA decline for the third year in a row to US$7b in CY24. Targets $0.4b/0.6b of $1.9bn of planned strategic EBITDA growth in 2025/2026.
- Management has guided a slightly positive apparent global demand growth 2.5-3.5% ex China. Expects restocking demand in Europe.
- Trades at 0.5x P/B vs 2-3x P/B for Indian steel mills JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) , Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN)
EUDR: EC Mandates Due Diligence For All In Rubber Supply Chain Except SMEs
- EC publishes 11 commodities’ scenarios including rubber
- Non-SME operators, dealers tasked with due diligence onus
- German Rubber Association criticism fails to make impact
Cleveland-Cliffs: Ramping Up Automotive Sector Engagement To Catalyze Top-Line Growth!
- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s earnings for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 highlighted several critical facets of the company’s recent performance and its outlook.
- The call began with the acknowledgment of substantial challenges faced during 2024, primarily driven by weak demand from key sectors, including automotive and construction, which resulted in the idling of the C6 blast furnace at the Cleveland Works plant.
- The impact of persistently high interest rates and ongoing trade distortions due to overproduction and unfair competition from foreign steel producers also played a significant role in shaping Cleveland-Cliffs’ challenging year.
Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies
- After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
- Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (>1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week’s global demand.
- With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system’s high inventories.
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 13 March 2025 (AMG Critical Materials | Vopak | Triodos Bank)
- AMG Critical Materials | completes repurchase of 40% interest in Graphit Kropfmühl AMG completed the repurchase of a 40% ownership interest in Graphit Kropfmühl and has become the sole owner again of this company.
- Ten years ago, on March 2015, it sold a 40% equity interest in this leading global supplier of high-purity natural graphite to Alterna Capital Partners.
- Comment | In 2012 AMG became the sole owner of GK, a vertically integrated high purity natural graphite business, with mines in Europe, Asia and Africa.
NIM: Final Permit for Bulk Sample at Dominion Creek Received
- Nicola announced that it received the final permit for the 10,000t bulk sample at the Dominion Creek Mineral Project.
- The bulk sample will be processed at Nicola’s Merritt Milling Facility providing a potential third source of ore to the mill as early as Q2/25.
- NIM announced the closing of its non-brokered private placement.
Will Oneok’s Mexico LNG Move Transform Their Future?
- ONEOK’s Q4 2024 earnings report indicates notable strategic and financial developments over the past year.
- The company reported higher earnings for both the quarter and the full year 2024, with significant contributions from strategic acquisitions and volume growth.
- ONEOK’s financial prospects for 2025 are positive, with an expected earnings growth driven by expanded operations and infrastructure projects.
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