Daily BriefsEquity Bottom-Up

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: [Alibaba (BABA US and more

In today’s briefing:

  • [Alibaba (BABA US,BUY, TP US$150) TP Change]: AI’s Inflection Point Arrived, Will E-Commerce’s Also?
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Falls From Elevated Level; UMC & ASE Discount Opportunity
  • Breaking New Ground: Xiaomi, Trip Com and CATL Hit Record Highs
  • The Beat Ideas: Manappuram Finance: Gold Loan Growth, Ashirwad IPO Play
  • The Beat Ideas: Solara Active Pharma Science~ Turnaround & Value Unlocking Via Demerger
  • [Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot
  • The Best Use of Capital in a Gold Bull Market (Jeff Quartermaine)
  • Crocs Inc.: Will its Product Diversification & Innovation Be A Breakthrough Move?
  • Keppel: A Growing Asset Manager on a Transformational Path
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global EV sales: 2024 review, 2025 forecast


[Alibaba (BABA US,BUY, TP US$150) TP Change]: AI’s Inflection Point Arrived, Will E-Commerce’s Also?

By Ying Pan

  • Alibaba reported C4Q24 top line in-line with our estimate and consensus, but non-GAAP NI beat our estimate/consensus by 12%/11%, attributable to cost control and AntFin’s profitability improvement;
  • But what drives the stock was the strong performance in AliCloud and an articulation of a clear investment logic on Generative AI (GAI), 
  • While the AI inflection point has arrived earlier than we expected, we remain eying for the domestic e-commerce turnaround with Jiang Fan at the helms. 

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Falls From Elevated Level; UMC & ASE Discount Opportunity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +17.2% Premium; Wait for Lower Levels Before Going Long
  • UMC: -1.9% Discount; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
  • ASE: -0.6% Discount; Discount is Opportunity to Long the Spread

Breaking New Ground: Xiaomi, Trip Com and CATL Hit Record Highs

By Steven Holden

  • Trip Com, Contemporary Amperex Technology and Xiaomi all hit fresh highs in EM fund ownership.
  • Rotation in all three was among the most positive across all China stocks, with all measures of fund ownership moving higher.
  • Conviction opens from GIB, Putnam and Aubrey we among the funds driving ownership higher.

The Beat Ideas: Manappuram Finance: Gold Loan Growth, Ashirwad IPO Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Manappuram Finance is a leading Indian NBFC specializing in gold loans, offering financial services to lower socio-economic backgrounds with 5,286 branches across India.
  • The RBI had barred the microfinance arm Aashirwad Micro Finance from sanctioning and disbursing loans due to non-compliance.  Company is planning for  IPO and intended to raise INR 1500 Crore.
  • Manappuram is committed to growing its secured lending portfolio, including gold loans and other secured assets and anticipates overall growth of 15%-18% in the consolidated loan book.

The Beat Ideas: Solara Active Pharma Science~ Turnaround & Value Unlocking Via Demerger

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Refocusing on the core business with the promoter stepping back on the board & demerger. Also focusing on value-added products and reducing debt from rights issues & internal accruals.
  • Solara Active Pharma Sciences (SOLARA IN) had issues in getting US FDA approvals for the Visakhapatnam facility & pricing pressure on the key product Ibuprofen.
  • The CRAMS and high-potent API segments have the potential to generate significant value over the next 4-5 years through the addition of new customers.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$40) Rating Change]: Optimum Cup Sales and Price Mix Hit the Sweet Spot

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin reported C4Q24 revenue 6%/1% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11%/38% higher than our estimate/consensus, driven by SSSG recovery and cost material savings;
  • After turning around same-store-sales-growth (SSSG) via price hike in C3Q24, Luckin finetuned the cup sales to price ratio to reach an optimal point in C4Q24, 
  • We upgrade Luckin from UR into BUY rating and set new TP at US$40.  

The Best Use of Capital in a Gold Bull Market (Jeff Quartermaine)

By Money of Mine

  • Duck projects and operations, specializing in large-scale builds
  • Jeff Quartermain leads Perseus Mining, discussing Predictive stake and valuation
  • Emphasis on creating value and diversification in mining investments

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crocs Inc.: Will its Product Diversification & Innovation Be A Breakthrough Move?

By Baptista Research

  • Crocs, Inc. recently reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
  • The company experienced steady growth, achieving $4.1 billion in total revenues for the year, a 4% increase over the previous year.
  • Its adjusted gross margin improved by 230 basis points to 58.8%, while the adjusted operating margin was recorded at 25.6%.

Keppel: A Growing Asset Manager on a Transformational Path

By Jacob Cheng

  • Keppel is an asset manager and operator with business in infrastructure, real estate and connectivity
  • The company is undergoing transformation from an asset-heavy conglomerate to an asset light manager with strong recurring income
  • We also like the strong capital management and its focus on total shareholder returns, valuation is not demanding

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Feb-2025): Global EV sales: 2024 review, 2025 forecast

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Global EV sales in 2024 were strong, with forecasts for 2025 looking promising as well, showcasing the growth of the electric vehicle market.
  • Asus and Gigabyte secure large AI server orders from Nvidia, highlighting efforts to boost US manufacturing and strengthen partnerships in the tech industry.
  • iPhone 16e price hints at a move away from the budget market, indicating a potential shift in Apple’s pricing strategy for future phone releases.

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