In today’s briefing:
- BYD (1211 HK): 3Q25, No Surprise, Revenue Down for First Time
- Meta: A Good 3Q Spoiled by a Tax Problem. Capex Boom Continues in 2026.
- Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?
- Lenskart IPO: Fashioning Vision or Pricing Perfection?
- Oriental Watch (398 HK)
- Tri Pointe Homes’ 32
- Booz Allen Hamilton Eyes Solid Growth with AI-Driven 6G & Quantum Defense Tech; Can It Materialize?
- Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK): What to Do Now After the IPO?
- Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral
- Euronet’s Strategic Partnerships With Citibank & Fireblocks Are Fueling a Payments Revolution; Is This The Biggest Growth Catalyst?
BYD (1211 HK): 3Q25, No Surprise, Revenue Down for First Time
- It is no surprise that BYD’s revenue decreased YoY in 3Q25 according to our previous sales volume note.
- The quarter-over-quarter margin improvement is not about seasonality, but about a sign of the margin recovery in 2026.
- We believe the stock has a downside of 25% for 2026.
Meta: A Good 3Q Spoiled by a Tax Problem. Capex Boom Continues in 2026.
- Good 3Q25: revenue 4% above Consensus, Operating Income 7% above. But a huge US$18bn tax reversal leads to a big GAAP miss. A 10% NON-GAAP beat.
- 2025 Capex revised up to high end of range, from $66-72 bn to $70-72 billion. 2026 Capex dollar growth will be notably larger than 2025, that means over 100bn.
- Stock down -9% after hours, an over-reaction to a one-off non-cash tax write off. Valuations: slightly high as 2026 growth is forecast to be low due to OP margin decline.
Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?
- First 3 hyperscalers to report (GOOG, META, MSFT). GOOG and META increase 2025 Capex. GOOG and META mention “significant increase” or “larger increase” in 2026.
- MSFT is in 1Q26, ending June-27. In FY25 Capex increased by 58% YoY. FY 26 capex will increase more than in FY25.
- Altogether it looks like a ~50% Capex increase in 2026.
Lenskart IPO: Fashioning Vision or Pricing Perfection?
- Lenskart’s upcoming IPO marks India’s first major consumer-tech listing, positioning the eyewear disruptor as a vertically integrated D2C brand with around 75% share in organized retail and strong international traction.
- While Lenskart’s 75% revenue surge and 275% EBITDA jump over two years highlight its operational strength, but the proposed valuation (70x EV/EBITDA) far exceeds global peers raises serious concerns.
- Lenskart’s vertically integrated model, data-led omnichannel scale, and strong international playbook offer structural advantages. But the IPO’s frothy valuation and pre-IPO promoter stake sales warrant a cautious stance for investors.
Oriental Watch (398 HK)
- Alternative data suggests a turn in the luxury wristwatch market. But most likely, this turn is due to US tariffs on Swiss watch imports, causing US buyers to panic buy.
- Oriental Watch continues to be undervalued at just 8.3x P/E and a dividend yield of 12%
- However, the Chinese watch market remains weak and there’s no clear sign of a turnaround yet
Tri Pointe Homes’ 32
- Tri Pointe Homes has reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, providing a mixed outlook on both its immediate results and strategic direction moving forward.
- During this period, the company closed 1,217 homes at an average selling price of $672,000, generating home sales revenue of $817 million.
- This exceeded the upper limit of their delivery guidance, showcasing their ability to navigate a challenging housing market environment.
Booz Allen Hamilton Eyes Solid Growth with AI-Driven 6G & Quantum Defense Tech; Can It Materialize?
- Booz Allen Hamilton provided detailed insights into their second quarter fiscal year 2026 performance and presented a mixed financial outlook characterized by a stark bifurcation in their market segments.
- The company faces significant challenges and opportunities, presenting both potential advantages and drawbacks for investors.
- On the positive side, Booz Allen’s national security portfolio, encompassing defense and intelligence sectors, shows encouraging signs.
Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK): What to Do Now After the IPO?
- Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK) has rallied 15.3% after its IPO, and 3Q25 earnings are in a consistent trend. We do not expect a significant change in earnings forecasts.
- The mere 0.1% discount to its A-share looks rich. The FY26F PER of 17.7x is also significantly higher than its peers, reflecting most of its strengths.
- Even if it re-rates to a similar premium as Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), the upside is only 5.8%. The risks clearly outweigh the return.
Thai Banks; Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Is Our Deep Value Pick, TMB Thanachart (SET:TTB) Is Now a Neutral
- We upgrade deep value Bangkok Bank to buy from neutral; it trades on a 40%+ PBV discount to SCBx and its return trends improved further alongside solid balance sheet credentials
- TMB Thanachart’s share price has corrected versus the peer group, so its PBV valuation no longer looks so stretched especially versus SCBx; we upgrade TMB Thanachart to neutral from sell
- Krung Thai remains a neutral, even though it is delivering on improved returns, as it is not compelling value and has been narrowing the discount with SCBx
Euronet’s Strategic Partnerships With Citibank & Fireblocks Are Fueling a Payments Revolution; Is This The Biggest Growth Catalyst?
- Euronet Worldwide reported its third-quarter financial results, showcasing a mixed performance across its segments.
- The company achieved a revenue of $1.1 billion, with operating income standing at $195 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $245 million, while the adjusted earnings per share were $3.62, reflecting a 19% growth compared to the previous year.
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