In today’s briefing:
- China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)
- Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025
- Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.
- Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs
- Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor
- Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated
- AeroEdge (7409 JP)
- Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
China TCM (570.HK) – About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook
- China TCM’s Profit Warning indicates a weak 25H1 results. Performance downturn is longer-than-expected. But as an industry leader, China TCM will enhance its bargaining power by integrating the industrial chain.
- Investors have reignited interest in betting on privatization of China TCM and potential merger with Taiji, as deadline is approaching.Privatization price may be lower considering China TCM’s weak 25H1 results.
- HK$0.84-2.17/Share is the reasonable share price range at this stage.The catalyst for China TCM’s share price is CNPGC may announce how to address the horizontal competition issue within three months.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Premium Remaining Unusually High; UMC & ASE Headroom Changes
- TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Opportunity to Go Short the ADR Premium
- UMC: -1.2% Discount; ADR Headroom Falls Yet Again by a Significant Amount
- ASE: +0.7% Premium; Opportunity to Go Long the ADR Premium — ADR Headroom Has First Change in a Long Time
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Jul)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Currently five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Domain Holdings Australia Ltd – The Monday Report – 28 July 2025
- Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.
- ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.
Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.
- On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”
- Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
- U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.
Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) Q2 FY25: Maintaining 75% Operating Margins and 50% ROCEs
- Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) reported flat earnings for Q2 FY25, with operating margins/net margins at 75%/65% and ROCEs topping 50%.
- The tariff increases (16% YoY) offset the degrowth in volumes (-5%YoY) and the increase in effective taxation (from 11% to 20%).
- Based on management guidance, the stock trades at 9.3x FY25 PE, with an 8.6% dividend yield
Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor
- Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
- CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
- Intel’s 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company
Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Actemra Shine Bright Amid Margin Pressure, 2025 Guidance Reiterated
- Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY rise in core revenue in 1H25, as overseas sales grew 7% YoY and domestic market revenue was up 3%.
- Actemra witnessed growth in both overseas and domestic market. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥151B (30% of total sales), down 6% YoY.
- In 1H25, two significant developments that happened are successful P3 trial of orforglipron and positive results from phase I/II study of NXT007.
AeroEdge (7409 JP)
- Earlier this month, Substack writer Gezzogero mentioned AeroEdge (7409 JP) (7409 JP — US$88 million) on his blog.
- I thought it was a fantastic write-up and wanted to dig into it myself.
- The company is a supplier of aircraft components. It manufactures low-pressure turbine blades for the well-regarded LEAP jet engine, which is used in narrow-body aircraft such as the Airbus (AIR FP) A320neo and Boeing (BA US) 737 MAX.
Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue increased by 10.7% YoY to JPY3.4bn, while operating profit decreased by 37.8% YoY to JPY93mn.
- Sales for AI servers and data centers remained strong, but consumer product demand stalled due to US-China tensions.
- Revenue from semiconductor packages grew 24.1% YoY, while automotive-related sales declined slightly due to inventory adjustments.
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