Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Jim Chanos on the Nuttiness of ‘Bitcoin Treasury Companies’ and more

• Jim Chanos discusses Bitcoin treasury companies and their flaws on Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News
• Companies are continuing to adopt the strategy of using treasury to buy Bitcoin
• The value of companies like MicroStrategy is being inflated by the appreciation of their Bitcoin holdings

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• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is planning to scale back its presence in the gallium nitride (GaN) market to focus on high-growth areas.
• To meet customer demand, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) has recently been reallocating resources away from mature process nodes.
• We estimate that Navitas Semiconductor Corp (NVTS US) alone consumes over half of TSMC’s GaN capacity each month, making it TSMC’s largest GaN customer.

• SoftBank group (SBG) relies increasingly on Arm’s premium valuation for NAV growth, with SBG shares having benefited from their high correlation to those of Arm Holdings
• JPY-USD FX strengthened recently, with the potential for BoJ monetary tightening and Fed easing set to accentuate this trend; SBG is USD asset heavy, and JPY heavy in its liabilities
• The Vision Funds are slowly seeing IPO exits for private companies; in essence, we see that SBG shares are challenged by (geo)political, concentration, currency and market risks

• Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) targets a 2% return to the statistical mean reversion level. The pair has closely aligned fundamentals.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Even if Intel Corp (INTC US) ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.
• In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.
• In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.

• Adani Power faced nearly USD 900 million in overdue receivables from its 1,600 MW Godda plant under a long-term export PPA.
• Bangladesh resumed regular payments and cleared USD 437 million in June; future dues secured via Letter of Credit and sovereign guarantee.
• Working capital improves over 40%, interest costs fall by ₹300–400 crore, and credit upgrade likely; boosts cash flow and strategic flexibility.

Singapore Post (SingPost) has experienced significant changes over the last six months, and further change is likely as the company searches for a new CEO. We expect a strategy update following the hiring of the new CEO. The timing of an appointment is unknown, as are the identity of the candidate and the strategy itself. Given the potential upheaval, we withdraw our forecasts pending strategic clarity.

• Revenue and net profit have grown steadily over the past 5 years, but margins remain structurally thin due to its tolling-heavy model.
• Strategic shift underway to expand captive mining, value-added copper products, and ESG compliance—potentially lifting margins and returns through FY30.
• Trading at a steep discount to Zijin (~0.6x P/B vs. 2.3x), the gap reflects real structural differences; not unjustified—but offers upside optionality under copper price normalization and higher captive integration.

• Crizac’s INR 860-crore, 100% OFS IPO opens at INR 233-245, giving investors exposure to its fast-growing B2B overseas-education marketplace.
• International student demand is booming, yet 95 % of revenue hinges on UK-Canada-Ireland; any visa tightening or pricing shock could squeeze growth.
• Valuation looks fair and model asset-light, but high concentration and no fresh funds temper enthusiasm.

• Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
• The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
• That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%.