Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Metaplanet (3350) | When the Bitcoin Flywheel Stops Spinning and more

• Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
• BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
• Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.

• Rocket Lab has taken a significant strategic step toward becoming a fully vertically integrated space company with its intent to acquire a controlling stake in Mynaric AG, a German-based laser communications provider.
• The deal, still subject to regulatory and restructuring approvals, comes on the heels of Rocket Lab’s Q2 2025 earnings, where the company reported $39.6 million in revenue and reiterated its commitment to expanding across the entire space value chain.
• If completed, the acquisition will give Rocket Lab access to Mynaric’s production capabilities, intellectual property, and workforce of over 300 engineers.

• Macbee Planet is a high-growth marketing technology company specializing in data-driven LTV (Lifetime Value) marketing, a niche that offers significant upside within Japan’s large internet advertising market.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional track record of revenue and net income growth, driven by its performance-based consulting and proprietary technology platforms. However, this growth has been accompanied by significant cash flow volatility and recent margin compression.
• Key risks include a high dependency on a few key industries, particularly finance and wellness, increasing competition, and the challenge of maintaining profitability while scaling. The recent negative operating cash flow is a primary concern for investors.

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• Northwest Biotherapeutics is a clinical-stage biotechnology company whose value is almost entirely dependent on the regulatory approval and commercial success of its lead product candidate, DCVax-L, for glioblastoma (GBM), an aggressive form of brain cancer.
• The company has completed a Phase III trial for DCVax-L, which it reported met its primary and secondary endpoints for extending survival in both newly diagnosed and recurrent GBM patients. A Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) was submitted to the UK’s MHRA in December 2023, making the regulatory decision a critical near-term catalyst.
• Financially, the company is in a precarious position, characterized by a history of significant net losses, consistent cash burn, and a reliance on dilutive financing to fund operations. Future capital raises are a near certainty, posing a significant risk to current shareholders.

This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

• USG 1:1 domestic / import ratio for semi manufacturing not a clear positive for Intel. Intel needs a 14A node very quickly. But it’s positive to TSMC, increase pricing power.
• The 1:1 rule is potentially positive for Intel and Samsung but only if they fix yield problems and offer complete design and IP tools to their customers. Long road ahead.
• TSMC could increase US Capex and lower Taiwan Capex. But TSMC plans to make 30% of its advanced chips in the US from 2027. Capex increase would be mild.

• Context: The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) vs. Ampol (ALD AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Woodside Energy (WDS AU) and short Ampol (ALD AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2025.
• This was a STRONG REVERSAL of the relative share price performances of these 38 pairs in 3Q 2025 versus in 2Q 2025.
• We provide four holdco/opco pairs that have experienced noticeable divergence in the past three months and we expect closing of their gaps could occur in the next several weeks

• Occidental Petroleum Corporation is on the verge of its largest-ever divestment: the sale of its OxyChem petrochemical unit, in a deal that could fetch at least $10 billion.
• According to recent reports, the company is deep in discussions, though no buyer has been named yet.
• If finalized, this move will mark a pivotal shift in Occidental’s corporate structure—transforming the Houston-based energy giant’s strategic outlook and positioning it as one of the leanest and most carbon-focused companies in the sector.

• Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The combination of going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has traded profitably in July and is now flagged again as a fresh opportunity.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
• But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
• USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument