Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Paytm 2.0: Growth Triggers Loading… and more

• Paytm (PAYTM IN) is pivoting post-regulatory setbacks with board overhaul, license reapplications, and focus on high-margin verticals like lending and merchant services.
• Triggers like MDR revival, PPBL embargo removal, and PA license approval could significantly lift monetization, improve take rates, and stabilize investor sentiment.
• While competition is stiff, structural improvements and cost controls position Paytm for a profitable rebound, making it a potential re-rating candidate in FY26.

• Apple Inc. is facing one of the most turbulent moments in its recent history.
• Over the past week, the company has lost over $700 billion in market capitalization, relinquished its crown as the most valuable U.S. company to Microsoft, and seen its shares plummet by 23% across four trading sessions.
• The sell-off comes on the back of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, with President Donald Trump introducing a 125% tariff on Chinese imports—directly impacting Apple’s China-dependent supply chain.

• In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
• Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
• The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 

• AI Nose for healthcare, industrials, and robotics. Ainos is digitizing smell with AI Nose to capture airborne chemical signatures, using AI-powered processes to immediately classify and identify scents in any environment.
• Initially focused on healthcare, Ainos is developing a women’s health test, Ainos Flora with AI Nose, in addition to an elderly care project with Japanese partners to assist caregivers in monitoring seniors.
• Ainos recently entered partnerships with ugo and ASE, expanding AI Nose development to robotics and industrial applications.

In FY24, Ocean Wilsons increased its earnings per share and dividend by 7% and more than 40%, respectively. 2024 was a seismic year for the company as it agreed to sell its 56% holding in Wilson Sons. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 40% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p/share. Given the pending disposal, we are withdrawing our forecasts.

• Harley-Davidson is navigating a critical crossroads as it searches for a new CEO to replace Jochen Zeitz, who recently announced plans to retire after five years at the helm.
• This leadership transition comes at a precarious time for the iconic motorcycle brand, which is grappling with a sustained decline in sales, intensifying macroeconomic pressures, and the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs—particularly from the European Union.
• In 2024, global retail sales dropped by 7%, with international sales falling a steep 13%, reflecting a broader downturn in discretionary spending.

• Sales increased by JPY476mn (+1.0% YoY), driven by growth in the Creative (Japan) segment, while operating profit decreased by JPY489mn (-11.9% YoY).
• The company forecasts FY02/26 consolidated sales of JPY60.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and operating profit of JPY5.0bn (+38.3% YoY).
• Year-end dividend forecast for FY02/26 is JPY45.0 per share, with a payout ratio of 38.9%.

• Compass Group PLC has released its full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance with a 16% increase in operating profit and an 11% growth in organic revenue.
• The company reported a margin progression of 30 basis points, taking it to 7.1%.
• This has been complemented by a net new business growth of 4.2%, further gaining momentum in the second half of the year.

• What you need to know: • We visited Rio2’s Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile on March 25th.
• • The visit was valuable in better understanding the layout of the project, progress on construction, the scale of the asset, and team behind it.
• • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas.

• 1H FY08/25 revenue increased 22.7% YoY to JPY186.8bn, with progress toward full-year forecast at 51.9%.
• Operating profit rose 5.0% YoY to JPY16.6bn, with all segments showing growth except Communications & Energy.
• Subscriber count for U-NEXT increased by 150,000, while former Paravi subscribers declined by 20,000 in 1H FY08/25.