South Korea Daily Briefs

Jun 17

Daily Brief South Korea: Telcoware, Asia Holdings, Dongwon Industries, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Telcoware & Shinsung Tongsang Tender Offers: Minority Shareholders Demand Higher Tender Offer Prices
[Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet
Three Key Angles when Hunting Div Arb Setups in the Korean Market
KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

Telcoware & Shinsung Tongsang Tender Offers: Minority Shareholders Demand Higher Tender Offer Prices

By Douglas Kim

Telcoware (078000 KS) and Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) are two recent tender offers in Korea where the minority shareholders are demanding higher tender offer prices.
The actual subscription rate of the Telcoware tender offer was only 10.44%, far below the 25.24% targeted by the CEO Keum Han-Tae.
The Shinsung Tongsang owner family may acquire an additional 7–10% stake via this tender offer, though it remains unclear if they can secure full 95% ownership at this stage.

[Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet

By Travis Lundy

KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the next semiannual review in December 2025.
We expect up to 4 ADDs and 4 DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Three Key Angles when Hunting Div Arb Setups in the Korean Market

By Sanghyun Park

Is the SSF base price automatically adjusted on ex-div day? No — Korea doesn’t mechanically adjust cash or futures base prices on ex-div, keeping dividend arb opportunities alive.
Could front-month futures flip into contango near ex-div? It’s rare but possible, especially with KRX’s aggressive SSF reshuffles and KOSDAQ Global additions shaking up liquidity and basis volatility.
Arb plays may arise from Korea’s new 27.5% div tax on payouts over 35%. Ex-div timing and payout uncertainty may create opportunities for dividend arb setups.

KOSPI 200 Tactical Warning: OVERBOUGHT

By Nico Rosti

The KOSPI 200 INDEX has been rising > 30% since its 303-low in early April 2025: a vertical rally after Lee Jae-myung’s won the Presidential Elections in South Korea.
Our most extreme profit target set in our latest insight was 392. The KOSPI 200 reached 394 on June 16th. It is now ultra-overbought.
Our short-term WEEKLY tactical view is the following: the index could go maybe a bit higher or it could pullback soon (more likely). Not bearish, will be a buy opportunity.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Electronics, Samsung Card Co, SK Hynix, Samsung Heavy Industries and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao
Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

Near-Term Value-Up Plays in the Pipeline: Samsung Electronics & Kakao

By Sanghyun Park

Local chatter’s building that Samsung Electronics and Kakao might drop value-up disclosures by end-June to mid-July, as both cozy up to the new administration and move into its inner circle.
Jay Lee’s surprise solo meeting with President Lee marked a turning point, signaling Samsung’s intent to step out of SK’s shadow and take the lead under the new regime.
Value-Up details aren’t final, but Samsung’s likely to reaffirm >35% payout, while Kakao’s set to focus on ROE improvement and multiple expansion.

Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price

By Douglas Kim

WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card.
Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card.

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

By Nicolas Baratte

2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

By Rahul Jain

SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Rotem Company, HLB Inc, FnGuide Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread
Korea Small Cap Gem #36: FnGuide [Increasing Moat for Its Index Business]
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025.
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%.

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.

Korea Small Cap Gem #36: FnGuide [Increasing Moat for Its Index Business]

By Douglas Kim

FnGuide has been able to capitalize on its excellent brand name in the financial industry (especially for research used in equity trading) to profitably expand into the index development business.
Although the index business accounted for 25% of its sales in 2024, it has been the fastest growing business in the past six years.
Valuations are reasonable and it is trading at 27% below four year historical EV/EBITDA basis. We like FnGuide as a long-term investment story.

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

By Brian Freitas

Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

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Jun 13

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Elevator Co and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform

Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the emergence of the North Korea reconciliation related stocks that are starting to outperform. We have seen this playbook before.
With the new President Lee Jae-Myung, there is likely to be an outperformance of some of these stocks once again.
Among the 6 stocks listed above, we believe Hyundai Elevator is one of best stocks to capitalize on the increased reconciliation with North Korea.

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Jun 12

Daily Brief South Korea: Hotel Shilla, Shinsung Tongsang, Samsung Electronics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025
Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share
Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share

By David Blennerhassett

Back June last year, Yeom Tae-soon and family sought to take apparel manufacturer Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) private at ₩2,300, but fell short of the 95% delisting threshold.
The family have returned to the well with a more respectable ₩4,100/share Offer, a 35.8% premium to undisturbed, and optically, a fair price. The family and related parties hold 83.87%.
Should the family fall short of the 95% threshold, again, they may seek delisting through a comprehensive stock exchange.

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

By Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.

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Jun 11

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Mobis, Samsung Life Insurance, Youngone Holdings, SK Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

The Straight-Up Timelines on Three Big Econ Policy Bills Rattling Korea’s Local Market Right Now
Samsung Insider’s Flawed Premise on the Samsung C&T Forced Holdco Conversion Issue
NAV of Hanmi Science, Amorepacific Holdings, Youngone Holdings, OCI Holdings, & Orion Holdings
Preferred Shares of Five Major Korean Holdcos – Likely to Close the Gap Further With Common Shares

The Straight-Up Timelines on Three Big Econ Policy Bills Rattling Korea’s Local Market Right Now

By Sanghyun Park

The Commercial Act passed committee but the floor vote set for the 12th was postponed unexpectedly today; inheritance tax and Samsung Life bills remain stuck at proposal stage.
Presidential Office is pushing the Commercial Act reform hard; vote likely after new floor leader’s election. Passage is almost guaranteed, with enactment expected by early to late August.
Inheritance tax bills face heavy backlog, delaying progress; the Samsung Life Law, proposed by another party, is pushed further back as the new government prioritizes easier wins.

Samsung Insider’s Flawed Premise on the Samsung C&T Forced Holdco Conversion Issue

By Sanghyun Park

The FTC uses acquisition cost, not market value, so Samsung C&T’s existing 5.05% Samsung Elec stake is booked at KRW 400B
Samsung Life only needs to sell ~5.5% of Samsung Elec, not the full 8.51%, leaving Samsung C&T with a ~KRW 10T buffer before hitting the 50% holdco threshold.
The holdco risk is overblown—unlikely without rule changes. The Bio spin-off looks like prep for Samsung C&T to buy Samsung Elec stake, driving re-rating upside for C&T and Life.

NAV of Hanmi Science, Amorepacific Holdings, Youngone Holdings, OCI Holdings, & Orion Holdings

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of Hanmi Science (008930 KS), Amorepacific Holdings (002790 KS), Youngone Holdings (009970 KS), OCI Holdings (010060 KS), and Orion Holdings (001800 KS).
These five smaller holding companies have also outperformed the market this year (up 43% on average versus KOSPI which is up 20% in the same period).
These holdcos’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies.

Preferred Shares of Five Major Korean Holdcos – Likely to Close the Gap Further With Common Shares

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss the preferred shares of five major holding companies and how the share price gap relative to their common counterparts could decrease.
There is a relatively easy way to improve shareholder value of these holding companies which is to cancel the entire preferred shares that trade at discount to their common counterparts.
The common shares of these five companies have experienced an average share price appreciation of 33.2% YTD versus 28.7% appreciation for their preferred shares counterparts.

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Jun 10

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc, Hanwha Corporation, Shinsung Tongsang and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

NAV Valuations of Top Five Largest “Pure” Holdcos in Korea
Updated NAV Valuations of Doosan Corp, Hanwha Corp, CJ Corp, GS Holdings, and Lotte Corp
Shinsung Tongsang: A Second Try at Tender Offer and Privatization

NAV Valuations of Top Five Largest “Pure” Holdcos in Korea

By Douglas Kim

Holding companies have been the best performing asset class in the Korean stock market in the past month.
In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of the top five, largest “pure” holdcos in Korea including SK Square, SK Inc, LG Corp, Hanjin KAL, and HD Hyundai.
The NAVs of these five holdcos are about 18% higher than their current prices on average.

Updated NAV Valuations of Doosan Corp, Hanwha Corp, CJ Corp, GS Holdings, and Lotte Corp

By Douglas Kim

We provide updated NAV valuations of Doosan Corp (000150 KS), Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS), CJ Corp (001040 KS), GS Holdings (078930 KS), and LOTTE Corporation (004990 KS).
These holding companies’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies that could unlock greater value.
The share prices of Hanwha Corp, Doosan Corp, CJ Corp, GS Holdings, and Lotte Corp are up on average 97% YTD.

Shinsung Tongsang: A Second Try at Tender Offer and Privatization

By Douglas Kim

On 9 June, Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) announced a second tender offer after a failed attempt last year. Tender offer price is 4,100 won per share.
The tender offer price this time (second try) is much higher than recent prices, making it much more likely that the tender offer will be successful.
From 2019 to 2023, Top Ten’s sales nearly tripled whereas Uniqlo Korea’s sales declined by about 33% in the same period.

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Jun 09

Daily Brief South Korea: Aurora World, Ecopro Co Ltd, HD Hyundai Mipo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks
Clarifying the KOSDAQ Global Index and SSF Reshuffle
Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

Curator’s Cut: The Next Labubu, Crypto Equities and Tracking APAC Buybacks

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look at an Asian toy manufacturer not named Pop Mart or Dream Int’l, the mashup between crypto and equity markets and the takeaways from tracking buybacks
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message on the themes you think should be highlighted next

Clarifying the KOSDAQ Global Index and SSF Reshuffle

By Sanghyun Park

KOSDAQ Global rebalances annually in June with unique, fundamentals-based screening, unlike cap-weighted peers. Its results are now a key lead indicator for upcoming SSF inclusion.
New SSF listings often trigger short-term volume spikes, especially in KOSDAQ names, leading to consistent spot outperformance from listing to expiry—most pronounced near the midpoint.
With more traders now tuned into the SSF pattern and fewer names rotating, early positioning and amplified price action are more likely this time around.

Friday’s Cap Reversion in the SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Sets up a Clean Flow Trade Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

Top 3 stays unchanged — HD KSOE beats HHI on consolidated sales, and index rules push HHI to the Plus side since a group sibling’s already in the Top 3.
Plus Universe also looks stable, but HD Hyundai Mipo’s weight drops from 14.12% to 10% Friday — triggering ~₩40B in passive outflows, a key flow trade setup.
₩40B sell vs. ₩60–90B daily turnover, all hitting via one ETF desk (Shinhan SOL) Friday afternoon — flow size could move the tape. Should keep it on our radar.

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Jun 08

Daily Brief South Korea: Able C&C and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

A Visit to Daiso in Seoul – A Retail Giant Crushing the Competition

By Douglas Kim

I recently visited Daiso near Seoul Station. Daiso is one of the few off-line stores that has been crushing the competition in Korea in the past several years.
Amid continued weak economy in Korea in the past several years, Daiso has thrived through its detailed execution of focus on low priced products with highest value to consumers.
Able C&C (078520 KS) is a prime example a company capitalizing on the strong demand for cosmetic products at Daiso.

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Jun 07

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Life Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Top 30 Best Performing Stocks in KOSPI in Past Week and Surging Price of Samsung Life Insurance

Top 30 Best Performing Stocks in KOSPI in Past Week and Surging Price of Samsung Life Insurance

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we also provide a list of 30 top performing stocks in KOSPI in the past one week (in terms of price performance and trading value).
We also discuss the surging share price of Samsung Life Insurance which suggests a near-term regulation change that could require the company to partially dispose its stake in Samsung Electronics.
With Lee Jae-Myung becoming the new South Korean President, the probability of Samsung Life Insurance being forced to sell its stake in Samsung Electronics has risen much more.

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