In today’s briefing:
- Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
- Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
- Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
- Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
- ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
- 2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
- MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
- SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
- Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
- Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
- Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
- The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
- Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Remains at Historically Extreme Level; UMC Breaks Higher
- TSMC: +21.5% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
- UMC: +2.3% Premium; Can Consider Shorting ADR Premium at Current Level
- ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Premium Before Going Long or Short the Spread
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
- Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
- Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
- At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
- Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
- Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
- Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.
ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
- The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
- It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
- ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.
2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
- BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
- I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
- I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026.
- We anticipate that 2H26 may not be strong for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), and a typical peak season demand is unlikely.
- Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance issued an urgent response: the current unified deadline for the 2025 national subsidy policy remains December 31, 2025.
- Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) recently underperforms among large-cap stocks due to delay in Google’s Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) project, affecting next year’s revenue and profit.
SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia
- 2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.
- 2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
- Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).
Why Amazon Issuing Stablecoins Could Negatively Impact Samsung Card’s Share Price
- WSJ reported that Amazon and other major multinational in the US are actively considering on potentially issuing their own stablecoins. This could negatively impact card issuers such as Samsung Card.
- Once stablecoins are legally approved in South Korea and some of the major merchants in Korea start to use stablecoins, the current revenue streams of Samsung Card could get disrupted.
- Although the exact levels of revenue disruption still remain uncertain, many investors do not like uncertainty which means that some investors could start to reduce their holdings on Samsung Card.
Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium
- SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
- Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
- With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.
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