Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up and more

• Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.
• Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.
• Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Novelis is the world’s largest producer of flat-rolled aluminum (FRP) products and the global leader in aluminum recycling, uniquely positioning it to benefit from the secular trend towards lightweighting and sustainability in the automotive and beverage packaging industries.
• The company’s business model is centered on a closed-loop recycling system, which provides a significant cost and sustainability advantage over primary aluminum producers, as recycling aluminum requires only 5% of the energy needed for primary production.
• Significant capital investments in expanding rolling and recycling capacity are underway to meet growing demand, particularly in the high-value automotive and beverage can segments. However, operational disruptions and cost inflation present near-term headwinds to profitability.

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• BeiGene (6160 HK) reported 3Q25 revenues of $1.4B, up 40% YoY (9M25 Revenue: $3.8B, up 43%), driven primarily by growth in Brukinsa sales in the U.S. and Europe.
• In 3Q25, US sale of Brukinsa was $738.7M, up 46% YoY. For four consequtive quarters now, Brukinsa outpaced its closest competitor Calquence which reported US revenue of $612M in 3Q25.
• BeOne now expects 2025 revenue to be in the range of $5.1–5.3B (up 34–39% YoY) compared to the previous revenue guidance of $5.0–5.3B.

• SG Mart is rapidly expanding its B2B marketplace for building materials, primarily focusing on steel, with an aggressive growth strategy aiming to capture a significant share of the large and fragmented Indian market.
• The company benefits from the strong backing of the APL Apollo Group, providing it with industry relationships, funding, and brand leverage for its B2C distribution.
• Key risks include the highly competitive nature of the steel trading industry, which operates on thin margins, and the volatility of steel prices, which can impact profitability.

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• Leading Market Position in a Resilient Sector: Toho is a dominant player in Japan’s food service distribution industry, a sector characterized by stable, albeit low-margin, demand. Its comprehensive business model, encompassing distribution, cash & carry, and food solutions, provides a significant competitive advantage.
• Strategic Growth Initiatives Driving Profitability: The company’s mid-term management plan, ‘SHIFT-UP 2027,’ focuses on key growth areas including expansion in the Greater Tokyo Area, increasing the share of higher-margin private brand (PB) products, and pursuing strategic M&A, which are expected to enhance profitability.
• Attractive Shareholder Returns and Valuation: Toho demonstrates a strong commitment to shareholder returns, targeting a 40% dividend payout ratio. The stock trades at a compelling valuation relative to its peers, supported by robust growth in earnings and dividends over the past three years.

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• New Leadership, New Strategy: The August 2025 merger of Paramount Global and Skydance Media, creating Paramount Skydance (PSKY), marks a pivotal moment. Led by CEO David Ellison, the new entity aims to blend Paramount’s iconic content library and distribution network with Skydance’s modern production prowess and tech-focused approach. The strategy centers on revitalizing key franchises, achieving profitability in the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment, and realizing significant cost synergies, now targeted at $3 billion.
• Navigating a Shifting Media Landscape: PSKY operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving industry characterized by the secular decline of linear television and the intense ‘streaming wars’. The company’s success hinges on its ability to grow its Paramount+ streaming service profitably while managing the decline of its traditional cable and broadcast assets. Management has signaled a focus on technology improvements to enhance user experience and reduce churn on its streaming platforms.
• M&A Remains a Key Theme: The formation of Paramount Skydance is a major act of consolidation, but the company remains a subject of further M&A speculation. As noted by Smartkarma analyst Baptista Research, the company is already contemplating an ambitious bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. This highlights the industry-wide pressure to scale up to compete effectively with larger, well-capitalized rivals, including tech giants like Apple and Amazon.

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• Shinhan Financial Group is one of South Korea’s largest and most diversified financial institutions, with a strong market position in banking, credit cards, securities, and insurance. Its scale and diversified business model provide a stable earnings base.
• The company is actively pursuing digital transformation and global expansion to drive future growth. Strategic initiatives like the ‘Super SOL’ application and investments in fintech aim to enhance competitiveness against traditional peers and emerging digital players.
• While the company exhibits attractive valuation multiples (low P/E and P/B ratios), it faces key risks from the domestic economic slowdown, potential deterioration in asset quality, particularly from real estate project financing (PF), and intense competition within the South Korean financial sector.

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• Dominant integrated entertainment enterprise in Japan, underpinned by a powerful intellectual property (IP) portfolio, most notably the globally recognized ‘Godzilla’ franchise.
• Clearly defined growth strategy, “TOHO VISION 2032,”focuses on strengthening its four core pillars (Film, Theatre, Real Estate, and Anime), with a significant emphasis on international expansion and digital innovation.
• Stable financial performance is augmented by the lucrative and less volatile Real Estate division, providing a solid foundation for investments in the inherently cyclical content creation business.

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• ROHM is demonstrating a significant turnaround, returning to profitability in Q1FY25 after a challenging FY2024, driven by structural reforms, improved demand, and cost controls.
• The company is a key player in the high-growth Silicon Carbide (SiC) power semiconductor market, which is critical for electric vehicles (EVs) and energy-efficient applications, representing a major growth catalyst.
• Despite the positive outlook, the stock trades at an attractive valuation of approximately 0.8x Price-to-Book, though it faces significant risks from macroeconomic headwinds, weak demand in China, and geopolitical tensions.

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