In today’s briefing:
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)
- Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns
- Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term
- Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) Vs. CBA (CBA AU): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Following Potential Overshoot
- Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet
- Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – September 2025
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.
- Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?
- MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Overseas Markets Shine; Tuomai Drives Growth; Losses Narrow in 1H25
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (8 Sep)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Marubeni Corporation (TSE: 8002) – Copper Torque, Platform Pivot, and Cash Returns
- Marubeni is a top-five Japanese trading house, diversified across resources, food, leasing, power, and chemicals.
- Management is deploying ~¥1.2tn capex through FY30, tilted toward copper expansion in Chile and renewables growth.
- Shares trade at ~11x P/E and 7–8% FCF yield with ~5% cash return yield, offering value on dips below ¥3,000.
Figma (FIG.US): 2Q’FY25 Earnings Review. Strong Quarter, But Margins Will Contract In the Near Term
- California based Figma Inc. reported another strong quarter, but shares sold off over 20% given an early lockup release of some ~11.4M Class A shares.
- I estimate ~$630M worth of Figma shares became eligible for sale on the second trading day immediately following public release of earnings for the 2Q’FY25.
- I think selling pressure in Figma stock is expected to ease as valuation improved and VC shareholders agreed to extend their lockup with respect to ~54% of Class A shares.
Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) Vs. CBA (CBA AU): Quant-Driven Pair Trade Following Potential Overshoot
- Context: The Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) vs. Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Going long Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) and short Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) targets a 4% return, with Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) supported by cheaper valuations.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Blue Jet Healthcare: Pureplay Intermediates CDMO. Recent Correction Overdone, Good for Fresh Bet
- BLUEJET is a pure-play API/CDMO with strong positioning in contrast media intermediates. Further, it has demonstrated R&D and execution capabilities by commercialising 15+ molecules (oncology, CVS, CNS) under CDMO model.
- Its share price has corrected by ~35% since July end, after below expectation June quarter results exacerbated by weak export data amid tariff concerns. However, August numbers alleviated some concerns.
- Shares now trade at 30x FY26 PE, the lower end of 30-60x range where peers currently trade at. Company has high visibility for 20+% earnings growth for the medium term.
Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas – September 2025
- We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
- We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
- Read our updates on Philippines Exchange (PSE PM): IPO Pipeline to Cross 200 Bn (>142% YoY) Pesos For 2025, The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Has Raised Wafer Prices; Rapidus Provides 2nm Milestone.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) has raised wafer prices, with 2nm wafers expected to cost at least 50% more—exceeding USD 30,000 per wafer.
- Rapidus plans to begin 2nm engineering production in 1Q26 and target mass production by 2027, likely one node behind TSMC.
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is expected to be ready for iPhone 17 production.
Pop Mart (9992 HK) – 2025 High Growth Is a Done Deal, but How About 2026?
- The certainty of 2025 performance is actually high. 25H2 performance is expected to be better than that in 25H1. Our forecast is net profit to reach RMB10 billion in 2025.
- The concern is Pop Mart may face the sustainability problem of performance under the high base of 2025 starting from 2026. If consumers develop aesthetic fatigue towards LABUBU, performance would decline.
- In a neutral situation, 30-35x P/E is a comfortable range.Valuation upside depends more on the sustainability of THE MONSTERS popularity and whether the popularity of other IPs can exceed expectations.
MicroPort MedBot (2252 HK): Overseas Markets Shine; Tuomai Drives Growth; Losses Narrow in 1H25
- Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (2252 HK) recorded 1H25 revenue of RMB 176M, up 77% YoY driven by rapid expansion of commercialization of multiple products. Overseas market sales grew 189% YoY.
- Toumai Laparoscopic Surgical Robot continued to be the main growth driver securing new orders of 30+ units and achieving commercial installation of 22 units.
- MedBot’s recent approvals of Toumai variants, technology advantages, diversified portfolio and commercialization strength place it at an inflection point, expected to be back in the black soon.
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