Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Near Fresh Spread Short Level; ChipMOS Rare Discount and more

• TSMC: +23.4% Premium; Near Levels to Open Fresh ADR Spread Short
• ASE: +0.3% Premium; Good Level to Long the ADR Spread
• ChipMOS: -7.5% Discount; Local Shares Rally Makes ADR Deeply Discounted

• Windows 10’s End-of-Life Becomes Apple’s Windfall as Second Fastest Growing Computer Brand
• Eyes on Yageo Results Coming October 30 After 35% 1-Week Surge
• China Tightens Rare Earth Grip: TSMC Says It’s Prepared with Inventory

• Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.
• We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.
• Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. 

• HDFCB’s balance sheet has been normalizing post the merger, allowing it to accelerate its growth trajectory. The demand and liquidity environment have also improved. 
• NIMs are likely to expand led by rate cut tailwind that will reflect fully over the next 18 months. Shift to CASA from term-deposits should further help. 
• Merger synergies are now being leveraged, especially for cross-selling and up-selling. At the current valuation, an investment in HDFCB offers 25%+ IRR over a holding period of two years.

• Horizon Aircraft (NASDAQ: HOVR) has made several positive announcements over the past month, further boosting our confidence in the company’s ability to achieve commercialization.
• Horizon Aircraft also released its first-quarter financial results, which were largely in line with our expectations, and the balance sheet has been strengthened by recent capital infusions, giving the company adequate capital to fund operations for at least the next twelve months.
• All publicly traded North American eVTOL companies are still pre-revenue, but several will likely have commercial products in the market next year.

• Godfrey Phillips India is demonstrating robust top-line growth, consistently outpacing its primary competitor and gaining market share, driven by its strong brand portfolio which includes the licensed production of Marlboro.
• Despite impressive revenue and net income growth, the company faces a significant challenge with deteriorating cash flow, as evidenced by negative 3-year compound annual growth rates for both operating and free cash flow.
• The company operates within a highly regulated and taxed industry, posing persistent risks to profitability and growth. However, its strong brand equity and expanding distribution provide a solid foundation to navigate these challenges.

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• Honeywell International Inc. reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, presenting a mixed picture with several strategic changes and operational highlights.
• Organic sales growth stood out, delivering a 6% year-over-year increase, driven predominantly by the Aerospace and Building Automation segments.
• Aerospace showed a notable rebound with a 12% organic growth led by commercial aftermarket and defense sectors, aligning well with supply chain improvements and defense spending.

• Context: The Bank Of India (BOI IN) vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more two standard deviations from its one-year average, signaling a potential pair trade.
• Highlights: Going long Union Bank Of India and short Bank Of India targets a 5% return. Union Bank Of India is set to report on 30 October.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Qualcomm is a great, very profitable firm, with a critical vulnerability: 75% of revenues come from Mobile market. Auto has been growing nicely but that’s 10% of revenue.
• Qualcomm has been looking for a large market to diversify into and has been working for 10 years on Server CPU. Not successful so far. 
• Qualcomm has 2 AI chips which are in non-mainstream Clouds. Now 2 new chips announced for 2026-27: AI200 AI250. That’s good but what we have yesterday is a PR announcement.

• Q3 sales fell 4% YoY and operating profit dropped 57%, reflecting continued weakness in bicycles and margin compression, though results aligned with lowered guidance. 
• Elevated channel inventories in Europe and China highlight lingering post-Covid demand normalization, with 2026 guidance likely to remain conservative amid structural headwinds.
• ROIC has halved as invested capital outpaced sales growth; despite strong cash and shareholder returns, Shimano faces slow recovery and limited near-term catalysts.