Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC Q225. Surfing The AI Tidal Wave With Style and more

• TSMC reported Q225 revenues of $30.1 billion, up 44% YoY, up 17.8% QoQ and handily beating the high end of the $29.2 billion guidance.
• Full year 2025 guidance raised to 30% YoY growth, and that may still not be enough
• Resumption of H20 sales to China not yet baked into forecast, an army of ex Intel employees coming on the job market & potential Fx reversal are all possible tailwinds

• Samsonite (1910 HK), the world’s leading travel luggage manufacturer/retailer, is trading well below its historical metrics. 
• The share price is up ~30% from its recent low, but down ~22% YTD following a ~31% fall over a 10-day period in early-April, shortly after Trump’s “Liberation Day” speech. 
• Management initiated a US$200mn buyback program last August. Overhangs include tariff and weak retail market in Asia and North America. Plus short selling has touched an all-time high.

• Cochlear Limited recently announced its half-year results for fiscal year 2025.
• In its earnings call, the company disclosed a mixed performance across its business segments.
• On the positive side, the company reported a strong 13% growth in Cochlear implant revenue and an even stronger 22% growth in Acoustics revenue, leading to an overall net sales increase of 6% in constant currency.

• James Hardie Industries Plc demonstrated a mixed performance in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025, underpinned by its strategic growth initiatives amidst challenging market conditions.
• Despite facing a softer demand environment and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company managed to achieve its financial targets, indicative of its strategic agility and operational discipline.
• On the positive side, James Hardie’s focus on strategic investments and scaling the organization has borne fruit.

• TotalEnergies’ Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 17.2% QoQ and 19.4% YoY. Similarly, its EPS is projected to drop 8.7% QoQ and 15.7% YoY.
• TotalEnergies is expected to post its weakest quarterly revenue and EPS reading since Q1 2021, as falling crude and LNG prices overshadow gains in refining.
• With 80% of earnings tied to upstream and LNG, even strong production and steady downstream performance leave little room for upside.

• Agilent is a leading provider of instruments, services, and consumables for labs in the life sciences, diagnostics, applied chemical markets, and R&D sectors
• With a market cap of $30 billion, Agilent was born within Hewlett Packard and spun off more than 25 years ago
• Agilent has a total addressable market of $160 billion and has a history dating back to 1938, starting as a testing instrument for audio equipment used by Disney in the production of Fantasia

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• Northern Star Resources Ltd’s March 2025 quarterly results showcased a strong financial and operational performance, despite facing some operational challenges.
• The company generated robust net mine cash flow of $295 million, with positive contributions from all production centers.
• The gold price, exceeding AUD 5,000 per ounce, aided this financial strength, alongside the company’s low-risk mining jurisdictions in Western Australia and Alaska.

• IDC and Counterpoint released their 2Q25 smartphone estimates. Smartphone units increased 1-2% YoY. Best performer: Samsung +8% YoY, but this didn’t help 2Q operating profits. Vivo +5%, Apple +2%.
• The smartphone market is desperately flat – or in slow decline. Smartphone is 76% of revenues for Qualcomm, 57% for Mediatek, 50% Apple and Xiaomi, 35% Samsung, 31% TSMC. Problem?
• For Semiconductor firms (QCOM, MTK, TSM), chips ASP increases 10-15% at each generation, between node migration (N3, N2) and increasing AI functionalities. For hardware vendors (Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi), it’s worse.

• • The Paradox initial processing capacity is envisaged to be able to handle 5-10 mmcf/d.
• Our base case assumes a conservative 5 mmcf/d, although throughput capacity is expected to increase with the tie-in of additional wells, including 16-2LN-CC and 28-11.
• Notably, the plant’s initial capacity is below the production potential of the 36-2R well.

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s recent financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, reveal a balanced mix of robust growth and strategic challenges, providing a comprehensive overview of the company’s current performance and future outlook.
• On the positive front, the company reported operating revenue of $2.02 billion, marking a 16% increase from the previous year.
• This growth is primarily driven by broad-based expansion across its hospital consumables portfolio and significant contributions from the obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) masks.