In today’s briefing:
- Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value
- HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription
- The Beat Ideas: Dixon Technologies ~ Revival or Ruin?
- Korea Zinc: US-Backed Smelter Lifts Strategic Floor; Dilution & Control Risks Weighed
- PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?
- Can Disciplined Execution Unlock Fenix as the Next Mid-West Iron Ore Champion?
- CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime
- Dolby Laboratories Just Won the TV Wars: Dolby Vision 2 Gets Major OEM Backing!
- Alibaba Group: What’s Behind the Qwen3-Max Momentum- Inside the Model Strategy Shaping Real-World Adoption!
- Agilent Technologies: What the Next Instrument Cycle Looks Like—Inside the LC & LC/MS Modernization Tailwind!
Vedanta: NCLT Approval Unlocks Aluminium-Led Break-Up Value
- NCLT approval removes the key overhang, enabling Vedanta’s break-up and forcing valuation discovery across aluminium, zinc/silver, power and O&G.
- Aluminium becomes the anchor, with falling costs and ~50% EBITDA share; zinc and silver provide resilient cash flows and downside protection.
- Intrinsic SOTP ₹1,020–1,050/share implies ~78–83% upside from CMP ₹572; execution-weighted 12-month TP ₹770 offers ~35% upside with downside protected even under stressed aluminium prices.
HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription
- HashKey (3887 HK) confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns.
- Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut.
- It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to Robinhood Markets (HOOD US). It is only attractive at the low-end price.
The Beat Ideas: Dixon Technologies ~ Revival or Ruin?
- Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN) , India’s largest EMS player, benefits from PLI schemes and the China+1 strategy, driving a robust 55% revenue CAGR and scale expansion.
- The stock’s 32% correction was driven by the regulatory probe into Chinese clients and broader EMS sectoral governance concerns.
- Strong financial health with 51% ROCEsupports medium-term growth momentum, making its valuation attractive despite high short-term volatility.
Korea Zinc: US-Backed Smelter Lifts Strategic Floor; Dilution & Control Risks Weighed
- US-Backed US$7.4bn smelter embeds Korea Zinc in US critical-minerals supply chains, lifting long-term strategic relevance and valuation floor.
- Shares eased after an initial spike as dilution, low JV ownership, governance litigation risk, and long-dated cash flows weighed on near-term sentiment.
- We retain a ₩2.1m TP (~30% upside), supported by TC recovery, rare-metals margins, buybacks, and partial governance-discount compression.
PB Fintech- Timing Shock Ahead?
- It is reported that Life Insurance industry is evaluating a shift away from traditional front-loaded commissions toward a deferred commission structure.
- Moreover, IRDAI has intensified oversight of distribution expenses and management costs in the general and health insurance segments and looks to lower the EoM cap for the insurers.
- These changes if considered, could pose meaningful near-term growth and margin headwinds for PB Fintech or Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN), which is already under pressure from the GST rate cuts.
Can Disciplined Execution Unlock Fenix as the Next Mid-West Iron Ore Champion?
- Fenix is approaching its first million-tonne quarter, with a fully cash-funded ramp-up targeting 6 MTPA by FY28 under a disciplined capital plan.
- Near term value is concentrated at Weld Range, while Jack Hills provides step-change optionality; Simandou is viewed as a manageable, priced-in risk.
- W10 approvals represent the key execution risk, while labour, logistics, port capacity, and fleet availability are not considered binding constraints.
CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime
- Brazil gold acquisition improves diversification and earnings stability; deal appears cash-funded and value-accretive at current gold prices.
- Asset quality improves on a risk-adjusted basis, though Brazilian gold mines are higher-cost and shorter-life than tier-1 peers.
- Valuation already reflects elevated copper and gold prices; upside now depends on commodity price persistence, not rerating.
Dolby Laboratories Just Won the TV Wars: Dolby Vision 2 Gets Major OEM Backing!
- Dolby Laboratories reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 results, revealing a 6% increase in annual revenue, reaching $1.35 billion, which aligns with the company’s previously communicated guidance.
- Operating margins also expanded by 1.8 percentage points.
- Revenue for the fourth quarter came in at $307 million, surpassing the midpoint of guidance, with non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) at $0.99.
Alibaba Group: What’s Behind the Qwen3-Max Momentum- Inside the Model Strategy Shaping Real-World Adoption!
- Alibaba Group’s recent results demonstrate a mixture of performance across its different business segments, with significant growth in some areas, tempered by challenges in others.
- Positively, the company reported a 15% year-over-year increase in total revenue when excluding contributions from Sun Art and Intime, driven by strong performance in key areas such as Cloud Intelligence, which saw a remarkable 34% revenue growth.
- This growth was largely fueled by sustained demand for AI and the increasing usage of public cloud services, evidencing Alibaba’s strong positioning in the AI and cloud sectors.
Agilent Technologies: What the Next Instrument Cycle Looks Like—Inside the LC & LC/MS Modernization Tailwind!
- Agilent Technologies, Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing robust performance across numerous dimensions.
- The company’s revenue for the quarter was $1.86 billion, representing growth of 7.2% on a core basis.
- This marked Agilent’s sixth consecutive quarter of core revenue growth acceleration, with the results surpassing the high end of their guidance range.
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