In today’s briefing:
- Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
- Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
- Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition
Douzone Bizon: First Real Test for Korea’s De Facto Mandatory Tender?
- Founder Kim reportedly looking to offload his 21.5% stake, with EQT eyeing a ~30% control block including Shinhan’s. No succession plans, deal said to be under serious review.
- Kim’s control premium ask could trigger Korea’s first test case of expanded fiduciary duty, with minority holders potentially suing if tender terms aren’t seen as fair under new rules.
- Buyer likely prepping a Q3 tender offer; key watch is how minority premium stacks vs control block — could be Korea’s first de facto test case of mandatory tender mechanics.
Vivendi: Mandatory Buyout in Motion – High-Conviction Risk Arb with 30%+ Upside
- Vivendi trades at a 37.7% discount to NAV, with a mandated buyout by Bolloré offering a realistic upside of 22–37% within six months pending French Supreme Court review.
- The AMF has ruled that Bolloré must launch a tender offer. Vivendi’s simplified structure, anchored by UMG, enables clear valuation through a detailed SOTP showing €5.26/share NAV.
- With liquidity exceeding €3bn, Bolloré can finance a buyout of minority shareholders. Even conservative pricing scenarios imply strong returns for arbitrage investors seeking event-driven upside.
Clearing a Common Misconception — No Pre-Cover Needed in Hanil Stock-For-Stock Swap
- Some still think we must close the borrow pre-settlement in a stock-for-stock merger. But KSD handles it fine — no need to pre-cover if shares stay lendable post-swap.
- Spread flipped negative — rare setup in Korea. Tight float on both sides (insider-heavy) is killing liquidity and borrow, leading to this reverse arb play.
- Deal break risk is minimal, new share listing is relatively soon, and the negative spread may widen—making this a compelling setup for a reverse arb play.
Next Science Asset Sale to Demetra Holdings: Potential 13% Upside with Capital Return and Strategic Acquisition
- Next Science plans to distribute net proceeds of US$30m from asset sale to shareholders, equating to A$0.158/share.
- The asset sale requires shareholder approval, with major stakeholders like the Walker family likely supporting the transaction.
- Uncertainties include FDA compliance issues, tax treatment of distribution, and potential changes in net proceeds estimate.
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