In today’s briefing:
- First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here
- True Aspect (Trade-Wise) Of the Samsung Life Accounting Issue: Today’s Biggest Market Narrative
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps, Again, And Declares Terms Final
- MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play
First Pacific (142 HK) Is Fully Valued Here
- In StubWorld: First Pacific (142 HK) Looking Stretched, I saw First Pacific Co (142 HK)‘s discount to NAV at ~30%, around its narrowest level in a decade.
- That analysis applied a fixed value for MPIC (delisted in 4Q23). However, if applying a look-through into 23.7%-held Manila Electric Company (MER PM), that NAV discount widens. Currently ~40%.
- By that yardstick this is the narrowest NAV discount since early 2018. This appears too tight. The benefits from the proposed spin-off of Maynilad appear baked in.
True Aspect (Trade-Wise) Of the Samsung Life Accounting Issue: Today’s Biggest Market Narrative
- Both accounting issues are complex, but intense regulator scrutiny fuels the Samsung Life Act case, sparking governance reshuffle bets and driving today’s Samsung Life stock pop.
- Accounting rechecks could spark divestment fears or governance-driven rerating, creating a classic headline-driven, bidirectional trading setup.
- Near-Term, this is a headline-driven momentum setup: Samsung Life longs/shorts, ready to pivot, with relative-value plays vs financial peers or Samsung’s governance-linked names.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Yageo Goes All in with a JPY6,635 Offer
- In response to Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) matching its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer on 14 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its offer by 7.0% from JPY6,200 to JPY6,635.
- To remain in the game, Yageo had to bump. The latest bump underscores Yageo’s confidence in securing regulatory approvals.
- The Minebea CEO suggested that its JPY6,200 offer would be the final one. If Yageo secures regulatory approval (likely), Minebea will walk rather than match Yageo’s latest offer.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Attempts to Call Betr’s Bluff with a Final Offer
- Mixi Inc (2121 JP) disclosed its final PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer. The base unconditional offer remains A$1.25 but will be increased to A$1.30 if it acquires a 90% stake.
- Mixi’s final offer is designed to put maximum pressure on BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) to fold. Mixi would not satisfy the 90% threshold unless Betr accepts its offer.
- Betr has three options: to improve its offer, accept Mixi’s offer, or maintain terms. The last option, which results in a significant stake in a competitor, makes strategic sense.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Bumps, Again, And Declares Terms Final
- Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its Offer to A$1.30/share, up from A$1.25/share; and declared terms final. Mixi currently holds 37.12% of shares out.
- Separately, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) released its Target Statement as it relates betr Entertainment (BBT AU)‘s all-scrip Offer, with a definitive “Reject”.
- Mixi’s Offer is open to the 29th August – and will not be extended. Time for betr to fold its tent.
MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play
- MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.
- Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.
- Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.
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