In today’s briefing:
- Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
- Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
- Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
- Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
- Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)
Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Three Is No Crowd as a Third Bid Lands at NZ$1.20
- On 2 May, Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) disclosed receiving a third non-binding scheme proposal from another international strategic at NZ$1.20 (A$1.12), 20% premium to the Tyro Payments (TYR AU) offer.
- Smartpay previously disclosed a NZ$1.00 cash/scrip bid from Tyro and an undisclosed offer from an international strategic (rumoured to be Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)).
- Smartpay was susceptible to bids due to the RBA’s surcharge review, but the shareholder structure necessitates an attractive offer. The NZ$1.20 offer is attractive.
Weekly Deals Digest (04 May) – Toyota Industries, Shibaura, Dickson, HKBN, Meilan Airport, Soundwill
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is set to launch an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion.
- Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK).
Merger Arb Mondays (05 May) – Makino, Shibaura, 7&I, Dickson, Meilan, Soundwill, Smartpay, Pointsbet
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Abacus Storage King (ASK AU), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP).
Crude Awakening: Shell’s Possible Bid to Refine BP’s Future
- Shell–BP deal offers strong industrial logic, with $70B in synergies justifying a 40–50% premium while delivering robust EPS accretion and strategic energy transition alignment.
- Regulatory hurdles are real but manageable, with anticipated divestitures in UK/EU fuel retail and limited structural issues in the U.S.
- Multiple financing structures are viable; a 60/40 cash-stock mix preserves leverage discipline, limits dilution, and enhances deal feasibility from a risk-arb perspective.
Weekly Update (LION, STRZ, GTX, LBTYA, WDC)
S&P Global (SPGI) announced on April 29, 2025, its intention to spin off its Mobility division into a standalone publicly traded company.
This strategic move aims to streamline operations and allow S&P Global to concentrate on its core businesses: Market Intelligence, Ratings, Commodity Insights, and Dow Jones Indices.
The Mobility division, which provides data and analytics to the automotive industry, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, marking an 8% year-over-year increase.
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