In today’s briefing:
- Metaplanet (3350) | When the Bitcoin Flywheel Stops Spinning
- Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Sep 2025 Ranks
- Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN), Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Fresh Statistical Arbitrage Signal in Indian Banks
- Tata Capital IPO: RHP Update Points to Mixed Fundamentals
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP): Double-Digit Oversubscribed Demand Leads To 24% First Day Return
- Tata Capital IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
- What’s News in Amsterdam – 30 September (Triodos Bank | Dutch Economy)
- kopi-C with MoneyMax Financial Services Ltd – How MoneyMax is taking the pawnbroking industry into the future
- (29 Sep 2025) Agent IG Holdings <377A> — Fisco Company Research

Metaplanet (3350) | When the Bitcoin Flywheel Stops Spinning
- Equity-Funded Bitcoin accumulation stalls, as Metaplanet’s share price and mNAV collapse, closing the window for reflexive BTC yield growth
- BIG trading desk delivers outsized returns, but sustainability remains uncertain amid falling Bitcoin volatility and rising funding obligations.
- Phase II pivots toward platform ambitions, signalling a shift from accumulation to architecture, and potentially, from treasury to Bitcoin bank.
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Sep 2025 Ranks
- JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
- The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
- Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2026 based on trading data as of end-September 2025.
Long ICICI (ICICIBC IN), Short HDFC (HDFCB IN): Fresh Statistical Arbitrage Signal in Indian Banks
- Context: The ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) vs. HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: The combination of going long ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) and short HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has traded profitably in July and is now flagged again as a fresh opportunity.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Tata Capital IPO: RHP Update Points to Mixed Fundamentals
- Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is the third-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India. It is seeking to raise US$1.7 billion.
- I had previously discussed the investment case in Tata Capital IPO: The Investment Case.
- The RHP updates show that the fundamentals remain mixed. Positives include large size, mid-tier growth rates and good asset quality. Negatives include below peer average NIM, interest spread and ROA.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu REIT, Vedanta Resources, Nickel Industries
- The UST curve twisted slightly steeper yesterday, with the front-end continuing to be supported by the prospect of Fed rate cuts against the backdrop of a looming US government shutdown.
- The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.61%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.15%. Equities climbed for the third day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
Neptune Insurance Holdings (NP): Double-Digit Oversubscribed Demand Leads To 24% First Day Return
- The company priced 18.4 million shares at $20.00, the high end of its $18.00–$20.00 range and shares opened at $22.50, a 12.5% premium.
- The deal was in high demand ahead of pricing, with order books reportedly more than 10x oversubscribed.
- Neptune’s debut follows five other insurance-related IPOs this year, a sector that has produced strong results immediately following their IPOs.
Tata Capital IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
- Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to raise up to US$1.7bn in its upcoming India IPO.
- Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.
What’s News in Amsterdam – 30 September (Triodos Bank | Dutch Economy)
- DNB has set quantitative prudential requirements as part of the SREP 2025 decision for Triodos Bank.
- The Total SREP Capital Requirement (TSCR) for Triodos Bank on a consolidated basis is 12.18%.
- Consisting of a Pillar 1 Capital Requirement of 8.00% and a Pillar 2 Capital Requirement of 4.18%, a slight decrease from the requirement for 2024 (4.45%).
kopi-C with MoneyMax Financial Services Ltd – How MoneyMax is taking the pawnbroking industry into the future
- MoneyMax’s group revenue rose 31.2% year-on-year to S$243.0 million, with net profits increasing 76.4% to S$31.8 million in H1 FY2025.
- The company’s five-year plan includes expanding in Singapore and Malaysia and exploring Southeast Asian markets with similar demographics.
- MoneyMax maintains a robust balance sheet, holding cash and cash equivalents of approximately S$18.9 million as of 30 June 2025.
(29 Sep 2025) Agent IG Holdings <377A> — Fisco Company Research
Key points (machine generated)
- Agent IG Holdings reported an operating loss for the interim period ending December 2025 but expects to meet full-year objectives.
- The company offers a wide range of property and life insurance services and is pursuing mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its market position.
- Since January 2016, Agent IG Holdings has acquired 636 insurance agencies, including the notable acquisition of Financial Japan Co., Ltd. in April 2024.
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