In today’s briefing:
- Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish
- DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?
- Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!
- Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable
- Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Sales in 4Q; Sequentially Weaker Profit; Solid Outlook for 2025
- Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish
- Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
- With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below. It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
- If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670
DaVita Inc.: Is Their Expectation Regarding Revenue Per Treatment Growth Reasonable?
- DaVita ended 2024 strongly, with adjusted operating income of $1.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growing by 26% year-over-year, reaching $9.68.
- However, challenges such as the Change Healthcare outage and supply chain disruptions due to Hurricane Helene impacted performance.
- These issues contributed to a $6 million negative impact on operating income in the fourth quarter.
Bio-Rad Laboratories: Expanding In Digital PCR To Strengthen Presence & Advance Molecular Diagnostics!
- Bio-Rad Laboratories recently announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2024, revealing both achievements and challenges.
- The company reported net sales of approximately $668 million in the fourth quarter, representing a decline of 2% on a reported basis compared to the same period last year.
- This decrease was largely attributed to a shorter turnaround in the Life Science segment and fluctuations in the biopharma market, notably in China, which still reflected a market downturn.
Pre-IPO Butong Group – The Current High Growth May Not Be Sustainable
- BUTONG’s growth momentum remained high, but customers are more focused on cost-effectiveness rather than premium products. We are unsure whether BUTONG’s current high growth is sustainable in this low-growth industry.
- The more revenue proportion from baby care products, the lower overall gross margin would be.BUTONG’s strategy of emphasizing sales over R&D isn’t conducive to establishing core competitiveness in fierce competition.
- After Series B financing, the post-investment valuation reached about RMB2 billion. However, the market value of peers is not high. BUTONG’s post-IPO valuation performance may be lower than expected.
Celltrion (068270 KS): Record High Sales in 4Q; Sequentially Weaker Profit; Solid Outlook for 2025
- Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) achieved 178% YoY and 21% QoQ revenue growth to KRW1,064B in 4Q24, driven by rapid growth of new products such as Remsima SC, Yuflyma, and Steqeyma.
- Celltrion guided for 2025 revenue of KRW5.0T, up 43% YoY. Celltrion is targeting COGS ratio in 20%s by 4Q25. Operating profit margin is expected to recover to 30%s in 2025.
- New launches, COGS improvement, and cost efficiency will drive 2025 growth. This year, Celltrion received European approval for four biosimilars and three biosimilars are under regulatory review in the U.S.
Moderna Inc.: Is Its mRNA Platform Fueling A Multi-Billion-Dollar Pipeline Beyond COVID?
- Moderna reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
- The company recorded total revenue of $3.2 billion for the year, a 53% decrease from 2023, attributed largely to declining product sales.
- The net loss for 2024 was $3.6 billion, a slight improvement from a $4.7 billion net loss in 2023.
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