In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: Rebalancing Our Model Portfolio – More to India and ASEAN
- Meesho Ltd IPO- Watch Out for Impairment Allowance
- Meesho Ltd IPO – Value-Led Play, Moderately Priced
- Meesho’s Valmo | Erosion of Delhivery’s Margins
- Meesho:Data Science Workhorse;Fast Evolving—Venturing into Financial Services & Other AI Investments
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership – Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan
Asian Equities: Rebalancing Our Model Portfolio – More to India and ASEAN
- Since inception (May 15th), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 17.0% – same as MSCI Asia-ex Japan. Since the last rebalancing (7th November) our Portfolio declined 2.5% vs MXASJ’s 1.3% drop.
- The recent underperformance came from drawdowns in Tencent Music, Tencent, Alibaba, Hynix, Hyundai Rotem, TSMC. We reduce the first two slightly, exclude BBCA, include Adani Ports, SCB, MAPI, HK Land.
- We remain Overweight HK/China and Korea. We upgrade India to Overweight from Neutral, Thailand from Underweight to Neutral, and downgrade Indonesia to Underweight from Neutral. Stay Underweight Taiwan, Neutral Singapore.
Meesho Ltd IPO- Watch Out for Impairment Allowance
- Meesho (1546271D IN)‘s INR 52.4 bn IPO is currently open for subscription. It consists of fresh issue worth INR 42.5 bn and OFS component worth INR 11.7 bn
- The company is India’s largest E-Com platforms in terms of placed orders and user base, and make its mark in the value segment, offering mostly unbranded and regional branded products.
- While KPIs signal growth and operational efficiencies, Meesho is still a loss maker. It has high litigation risk and seeing rapid increase in impairments and write offs with receivables
Meesho Ltd IPO – Value-Led Play, Moderately Priced
- Meesho (1546271D IN) is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance earlier. In this note, we talk about the implied valuations in the price range.
Meesho’s Valmo | Erosion of Delhivery’s Margins
- Delhivery (DELHIVER IN) faces immediate volume erosion as Meesho (1546271D IN) migrates 65% of orders to Valmo, destabilizing a key client relationship historically contributing ~16% of total revenue.
- Valmo’s rise structurally shrinks the addressable 3PL market, creating a permanent headwind that compresses pricing power and intensifies competition for remaining open volumes.
- Anchor client insourcing caps Delhivery’s growth trajectory, rendering the Ecom Express acquisition insufficient to offset the structural decay in organic B2C volume velocity.
Meesho:Data Science Workhorse;Fast Evolving—Venturing into Financial Services & Other AI Investments
- In this insight, we highlight why Meesho (1546271D IN) is a data science workhorse masquerading as an E-Commerce Platform
- We discuss about the various advancements made by the company towards AL/ML models which are difficult to replicate.
- Finally, we discuss our view on future prospects and valuation of the company.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greenko Energy, New World Development
- UST yields fell 2-3 bps yesterday, following the release of weaker than expected November ADP payrolls data. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST declined 2 bps to 3.49% and 4.06%, respectively. Equities rose, as the labour market slowdown reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The S&P 500 advanced 0.3% to 6,850, while the Nasdaq was up 0.2% at 23,454.
- In the US, the ADP employment report showed that private-sector payrolls declined by 32 k in November (10 k e / 47 k revised p), with payrolls having fallen in four of the past six months. Hiring has been choppy of late, as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, according to ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. While the November slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.
The Beat Ideas: Ambuja Cements From Consolidation to Cost Leadership – Unpacking the 155 MTPA Plan
- Ambuja Cements (ACEM) has raised its FY28 capacity target to 155 million tonnes per annum and secured the acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ (JAL) cement business.
- This aggressive scale-up, underpinned by a target cost reduction of INR 550/t and a green power push, is expected to drive EBITDA to INR 15000/t over FY26-28E.
- ACEM’s integrated strategy of inorganic growth and operational efficiency suggests a strong re-rating potential, justifying a deeper review of core fundamentals.
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