In today’s briefing:
- NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul
- Meesho – Potential Play on Value E-Commerce
- The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade
- There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
- If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
- The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul
- Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30.
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is falling this week, so we analyze our model’s WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much HDFC Bank can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose.
Meesho – Potential Play on Value E-Commerce
- Meesho has positioned itself as a value-shopping platform catering to rural consumers and small sellers. It charges the seller only for fulfillment and advertising while bringing value deals for consumers
- We believe Meesho has a right to win in the value-shopping category ahead of Flipkart/Amazon with its focus on pricing vs quality/convenience. However, it may not attract high-spending aspirational consumers
- IPO valuation at $5.6bn(5x FY25 sales) is relatively cheap vs listed e-commerce peers (6-13x). Closest peer Flipkart was most recently valued at $35bn (14x FY25 revenues).
The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus
- NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.
- This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.
- The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.
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