In today’s briefing:
- IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
- Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
- Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
- Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
- Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
- Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
- Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV
- The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge
- Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market
- NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime
IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
- India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
- We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
- Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
- On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
- The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
- While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.
Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
- Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
- Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.
Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
- Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025.
- This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country.
- The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not.
Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
- Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
- Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
- New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) – Top 5 Takeaways from Q4FY25 Results
- Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)’s Q4 FY25 results missed estimates, with revenue up 6.4% YoY but PAT down 4.3% YoY, impacted by higher costs from new launches and EV investments.
- Management guides for 1–2% industry growth in FY26 but expects to outperform, led by new SUV launches and strong export growth (+20% targeted).
- Valuation at ~25x trailing EPS appears fair relative to historical average; near-term upside looks capped given muted demand and margin pressures.
Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV
- Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is acquiring a 58.96% stake in SML Isuzu through SPAs with Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Isuzu Motors (7202 JP), along with open offer.
- The acquisition aims to significantly strengthen M&M’s position in the >3.5T commercial vehicle segment, doubling its market share initially and targeting further growth.
- This strategic move signals M&M’s clear intent to become a full-range player in commercial vehicles, leveraging synergies in product, network, and manufacturing.
The Beat Ideas: CARE Ratings- India’s Only Homegrown CRA Reclaims Its Edge
- CARE Ratings has emerged stronger post-IL&FS through board reconstitution, governance reforms, and renewed focus on ESG-linked services.
- With India’s credit market entering a capex-led upcycle and ESG regulations tightening, CRAs like CARE are structurally well-placed to benefit.
- Despite lagging CRISIL and ICRA in tech-enabled analytics, CARE’s high share of rating revenue (~90%) and clean balance sheet provide room for re-rating, supported by industry tailwinds.
Ather Energy IPO: A High-Risk Ride in a Crowded E2W Market
- Ather Energy is launching an IPO to raise INR 2,626 crore for capacity expansion, R&D, and marketing, and OFS of INR 350 Crore.
- Despite strong technological positioning, Ather faces rising competitive pressure, high cash burn, low capacity utilization, and growing risks from policy and supplier dependencies.
- While Ather’s innovation strength is intact, its financial instability and fierce competition make the IPO a high-risk, cautious-watch opportunity rather than a straightforward growth bet.
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Option Markets Remain in High Vol-Regime
- IVs rise as markets return from holiday-truncated week, moving from 14.2% to 15.8%. Monthly contracts benefit most as they capture multiple tier-1 event risks.
- “High & Up” vol-state persists. Though there is a high probability of switching to “High & Down” with slight IV stabilization.
- TACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Avoid negative Gamma/ Smile/ Vega exposure. Wait for vol-regime shift before initiating new risk-premia harvesting structures
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