In today’s briefing:
- IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
- NSDL IPO: The Bear Case
- JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead
- Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance
IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution
- Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
- Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
- Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.
NSDL IPO: The Bear Case
- National Securities Depository Limited/NSDL (NSDL IN) is the largest depository in India. It is seeking to raise US$400 million.
- In NSDL IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on the core business’s lower growth and margins compared to its key peer and the banking services’ weak performance.
JSW Steel: Steady Output Amid Pricing Pressure; Record Volumes Likely Ahead
- Volume: JSW Steel reported 7.26 Mnt of crude steel production in Q1 FY26, up 14% YoY, despite seasonal and maintenance-related disruptions.
- Expansion: The company is on track to scale up its capacity from 35.7 MTPA to 43.4 MTPA by FY28, led by ramp-ups at Vijayanagar, Dolvi, and greenfield Odisha.
- BPSL: Legal clarity on the BPSL acquisition remains pending, though operations have been successfully ramped up to 4.5 MTPA under JSW’s management.
Tata Steel – 1QFY26: Stable Output, Soft Deliveries Amid Planned Maintenance
- Tata Steel’s total crude steel production stood at 7.29 million tons in 1QFY26, flat YoY but down 3% QoQ due to upstream maintenance disruptions in India.
- In Europe, the Netherlands saw steady output, while the UK is progressing with its 3.2 MTPA EAF transition at Port Talbot, slated to begin construction in July 2025.
- With blast furnace relining at Jamshedpur nearing completion and NINL operations normalized, volume recovery is expected from Q2 onward.
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