In today’s briefing:
- NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
- Bajaj Finance CEO Resignation: Rajeev Jain Returns, But Succession Looms Large
- Asian Equities: Revisiting Indian Mid-Caps After Sharp Outperformance – A New Quant Screen
- Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
- HEG IN – Graphite Leader Expands into Anodes; Capacity Edge and Battery Optionality Key
- HDFC Bank-Quality Franchise but Credit Growth Will Lag in near Term; Likely Revive in H2FY26 & FY27
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Positives – Some Segments Growing..
NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Close Names
- With the review period nearing completion, there could be 4 changes (including 1 migration) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
- There is one stock close to inclusion zone and one stock close to deletion zone and price movements over the rest of the month will determine the final changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 30.06bn (US$350m). Six of the eight potential changes will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Bajaj Finance CEO Resignation: Rajeev Jain Returns, But Succession Looms Large
- Anup Saha’s sudden resignation as MD of Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN), just three months into the role, raises succession planning concerns.
- The architect of BAF’s growth resumes full control as VC & MD until March 2028, ensuring near-term continuity.
- While operations remain stable, the event sharpens focus on long-term leadership depth in India’s most premium NBFC.
Asian Equities: Revisiting Indian Mid-Caps After Sharp Outperformance – A New Quant Screen
- Since inception on February 27, our equal-weighted Indian Mid-Cap basket has appreciated 29.4%, sharply outperforming the BSE Mid-Cap Index (18.6%). We revisit our basket and apply the relevant screens again.
- We screen on minimum 10% EPS CAGR over next two years, maximum PEG of 1.3x, consensus rating of buy/overweight and upward revision in consensus EPS estimate over past 6 months.
- 14 stocks come up in our new India Mid-Caps basket – fewer than the 20 that we had earlier. Four stocks are common with the previous basket.
Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In
- Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.
- Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.
- Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.
HEG IN – Graphite Leader Expands into Anodes; Capacity Edge and Battery Optionality Key
- Q4 FY25 delivered best operational quarter with 27% EBITDA margin and steady 80–85% utilization despite global steel demand weakness.
- Expanding graphite electrodes to 100 ktpa, commissioning 20 ktpa anode plant by FY27, and deepening exposure via GrafTech stake.
- Base case SOTP implies Rs614/share, valuing core at 8× EV/EBITDA and anode business at 2.5× invested capital.
HDFC Bank-Quality Franchise but Credit Growth Will Lag in near Term; Likely Revive in H2FY26 & FY27
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)‘s Q1FY26 PAT up 12% YoY, driven by strong other income; core NII growth remained modest at 5.4%.
- Deposit growth remained robust; CASA revival and CD ratio improvement are key near-term priorities. However, margins under pressure from EBLR resets,but contingent provisions and stable asset quality offer medium-term stability.
- Bank should come back to its pre-merger metric by end of FY26. However, current valuation at 3x P/B leaves little room for error.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, Vedanta Resources, JSW Steel
- UST yields declined on Friday, led by the front end, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his case for a July rate cut and given lower-than-expected inflation projections in the University of Michigan survey.
- The yield on the 2Y UST and 10Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.87% and 4.42%, respectively. Equities were steady at record high levels, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flat at 6,297 and 20,896, respectively.
Pine Labs Pre-IPO – The Positives – Some Segments Growing..
- Pine Labs is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming India IPO.
- Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
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