In today’s briefing:
- PB Fintech Ltd- When Zero GST Turns Costly
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
- NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback
- From Turnaround to Triumph: Thyrocare’s Strategic Leap into the GLP-1 Megatrend
- Rubicon Research IPO Trading – Strongest IPO Demand of 2025 Yet
- IndiGo Q2FY26 Preview: High Fuel Prices, Currency Pressure, and Weak Seasonal Demand
- Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd Pre-IPO: Unsustainable Growth in Profitability
- Elevate Campuses Pre-IPO Tearsheet
PB Fintech Ltd- When Zero GST Turns Costly
- GST removal on life and health insurance eliminates insurers’ input tax credit, forcing them to cut agent-commissions, severely hurting Policybazaar (POLICYBZ IN) , whose 68% revenue depends on these segments.
- PB Fintech could have faced revenue losses upto 4.4% and 65.7% Adj. EBITDA hit if it fully absorbs GST; even 50% absorption cuts Adj.EBITDA by ~35%, based on FY25 numbers.
- Moreover, trail revenues, mainly from health insurance, could shrink sharply, threatening PB Fintech’s high-margin revenue stream and delaying its INR 10 bn profit target beyond FY27.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
- Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.
- Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC’s earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.
NIFTY 50 Tactical Outlook: Indecision May Lead to Pullback
- The NIFTY Index has been stuck in the 25k price zone since May 2025. The index is going nowhere.
- Our quantitative model indicates a 62.5% probability of reversal next week, if the index closes around 25300 (if the close is positive).
- If the index closes this week down, a pullback may be under way, entry zones details are discussed in detail in the insight.
From Turnaround to Triumph: Thyrocare’s Strategic Leap into the GLP-1 Megatrend
- Company marks explosive profitability in Q2 FY26 as revenue surged 22%, translating to an 82% EPS growth and strong 34.8% EBITDA margins.
- Volume grew 21% supported by a 20% franchise jump. Radiology margin improved by 800bp, signaling a turnaround.
- Company maximizes shareholder reward by declaring a massive 2:1 Bonus Share issuance and a generous Rs. 7 Interim Dividend, underscoring confidence.
Rubicon Research IPO Trading – Strongest IPO Demand of 2025 Yet
- Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) raised about US$155m in its India IPO.
- Rubicon Research has shown strong FY25–1Q26 growth, driven by expanding product launches, ANDA approvals, and higher US market penetration, while margins improved with operating leverage and lower R&D intensity.
- In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
IndiGo Q2FY26 Preview: High Fuel Prices, Currency Pressure, and Weak Seasonal Demand
- IndiGo’s Q2FY26 performance is expected to disappoint, with higher fuel prices, weak demand, and rupee depreciation sharply eroding margins and reversing the profitability momentum of recent quarters.
- Cost pressures are intensifying while yields weaken amid overcapacity and strong competition. The company’s cost advantage is narrowing, raising concerns about margin sustainability and near-term earnings visibility.
- With rising costs, currency headwinds, and pricing pressure, IndiGo’s profitability outlook appears challenging. Short-term recovery looks uncertain despite its strong balance sheet and scale advantages.
Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd Pre-IPO: Unsustainable Growth in Profitability
- Tenneco Clean Air India Ltd (1880671D IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Tenneco Clean Air India (TCAIL) designs and manufactures clean air, powertrain, and suspension solutions for Indian OEMs, export markets, and the aftermarket, serving PVs, CVs, OHs, and industrial applications.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
Elevate Campuses Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Elevate Campuses Limited (1638929D IN) is looking to raise about US$287m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Fin, MS and IIFL.
- Elevate Campuses Limited (ECL) owns, operates and manages on-campus student accommodation across Higher Education Institutions and owns K-12 (Kindergarten-to-12th grade) assets, operating under ‘Good Host Spaces’ and ‘ScholarZ’ brands.
- As of Aug 31, 2025, ECL was the largest institutionalized and independent education platform in India, based on student capacity, as per the CBRE Report.
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