In today’s briefing:
- Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
- Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
- WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid
Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
- Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
- If no deal, there’s downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
- I don’t see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.
Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
- Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%.
- This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated.
- With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.
WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid
- WCP (WCP KS), a lithium-ion batteries separator company, has set its IPO price at KRW60,000 per share, a hefty 25-40% discount on the “desired” IPO price range of KRW80,000-100,000.
- The target raise has declined from KRW720-900 billion (US$517-646 million) to KRW432 billion (US$310 million) due to the lower IPO price and offer shares.
- While the final IPO price is now reasonable, the process smacks desperation and calls into question the credibility of the syndicate’s forecasts. This is still an avoid.
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