In today’s briefing:
- Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
- Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time
- SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
- Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom
- Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update
- Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Japan Investment Adviser Co (7172 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
- Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Toyota Industries (6201) – Thinking About How To Value a ¥6trln Bid
- Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
- As of 31 March 2025, the “Enterprise Value” of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The “Asset Ownership Business” was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
- If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.
Shibaura Elec (6957) – Minebea Overbids Yageo’s Overbid of Minebea’s Overbid of Yageo – ¥5,500
- A Nikkei article today suggested Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) would overbid Yageo’s dramatic 20% overbid of Minebea’s early ¥4,500 overbid of Yageo’s initial ¥4,300 bid for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- Now the news is out. MinebeaMitsumi has bid ¥5,500. Shibaura Electronics has endorsed. This is bang-in-line with the expected path. The question is now YAGEO’s overbid, expected 7 May.
- If I were YAGEO, I would wait for Shibaura’s earnings a couple of days later, then overbid by ¥100-150 and go for 35 days. There’s optionality there.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): MinebeaMitsumi Outbids Yageo for a Second Time
- Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) has revised its tender offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) to JPY 5,500, representing a 1.9% premium over Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)’s JPY 5,400 hostile offer.
- There are factors supporting Yageo again outbidding Minebea, and Yageo calling it quits. A revised Yageo could potentially touch JPY6,000, 40% higher than its first offer.
- The shares are trading 7.1% above Minebea’s offer, factoring in a fair chunk of the upside from an ongoing bidding war. Take profits as risk/reward looks unattractive.
SONY (6758) | Going into Earnings
- Content-Driven growth: Strong performance in music and gaming supports Sony’s shift toward high-margin content, insulating it from trade and macro headwinds.
- Upcoming catalysts: Spin-off of Sony Financial and potential restructuring could unlock value and address the long-standing conglomerate discount.
- Attractive valuation: Trading at 14x EV/EBIT with defensive sector exposure, Sony remains undervalued relative to global peers despite YTD outperformance.
Ebay’s Qoo10 Surges on K-Style Boom
- Qoo10 is tiny in comparison to Amazon, Rakuten and Yahoo but it punches well above its weight by specialisation.
- The online mall’s focus on Korean cosmetics and lifestyle has given it a depth of loyalty among young women that was once the preserve of Zozo.
- Along with its other platform Move, Ebay Japan has built a solid presence in the Japanese market which looks set to continue to expand.
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- In FY03/25, the company achieved revenue of JPY2.43tn, operating profit of JPY697.3bn, and net income of JPY544.1bn.
- For FY03/26, the company projects revenue of JPY2.6tn, operating profit of JPY727.0bn, and net income of JPY566.0bn.
- The company plans to increase R&D expenses to JPY300.0bn in FY03/26, up from JPY250.0bn in FY03/25.
Hakuto Co Ltd (7433 JP): Full-year FY03/25 report update
- FY03/25 results: Sales JPY183.1bn (+0.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY7.9bn (+3.6% YoY), Net income JPY5.1bn (-0.9% YoY).
- FY03/25 forecast: Sales JPY186.0bn (+1.6% YoY), Operating profit JPY6.0bn (-24.2% YoY), Net income JPY4.9bn (-4.5% YoY).
- Hakuto’s medium-term plan targets sustainable growth by FY03/29, with Vision 2030 and Hakuto 2028 initiatives.
Meiwa Corp (8103 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- FY03/25 revenue was JPY156.7bn (-1.0% YoY), with operating profit JPY3.6bn (+20.1% YoY) and net income JPY3.4bn (+22.6% YoY).
- FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY160.0bn (+2.1% YoY), operating profit JPY3.2bn (-10.3% YoY), net income JPY3.0bn (-11.1% YoY).
- Meiwa plans a JPY38.00 per share dividend for FY03/26, down from JPY42.00 in FY03/25.
Japan Investment Adviser Co (7172 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
- Q1 revenue increased 22.3% YoY, driven by a 19.5% rise in Operating Lease business revenue, reaching JPY11.0bn.
- Operating profit margin rose 9.9pp to 63.3% in Q1, despite foreign exchange losses of JPY448mn.
- Total value of operating lease deals arranged in Q1 was JPY79.3bn, with significant growth in vessel arrangements.
Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Sales increased by 5.9% YoY to JPY360.5bn, but operating profit decreased by 31.8% YoY to JPY6.2bn.
- Pharmaceutical Manufacturing faced a JPY630mn operating loss due to NHI drug price revisions and manufacturing deficiencies.
- FY03/26 forecasts sales of JPY372.8bn (+3.4% YoY) and net income of JPY3.5bn (+151.6% YoY).
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