In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.
- EA: False Dawn For Disinflation
- Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds
- The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works
- Egypt, December 2nd 2025
- Oil futures: Crude edges down but amid geopolitics and glut concerns
Asian Equities: Southbound Zeal Dips; Some Established Themes Looking Tired, Others Rejuvenated.
- From the superlative September (US$24.2 bn net buy), onshore investors’ net Southbound buying dipped in October (US$11.9 bn) and November (US$15.7 bn). Xiaomi, Alibaba, PopMart and Meituan were bought most.
- The most sold stocks during October-November were SMIC, Hua Hong Semi, Innovent Biologics. Enthusiasm for semiconductor and biotech seems to be cooling off, though we believe biotech focus should revive.
- Investors’ sustained preference is for stocks catering to domestic consumption that are able to adopt AI to improve productivity and expand their cash-generating businesses. Internet platforms fall in this silo.
EA: False Dawn For Disinflation
- A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.
- The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.
- Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.
Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds
- Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
- Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore.
- Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.
The Stupidly Simple Trend-Following Strategy That Actually Works
- This neat and tidy method can deliver crisis protection and smoother returns to your portfolio, using just four ETFs and a once-a-month adjustment
- When markets are choppy, it’s natural to reach for forecasts, hot takes, and the thing everyone’s talking about.
- But sometimes the smartest move is also the simplest: following the trend. Here’s a neat and tidy way to keep your portfolio in line with where the prices are heading.
Egypt, December 2nd 2025
IMF starts its mission in Cairo.
Budget deficit widens, Growth accelerating.
Shipping companies plan full return through the canal.
Oil futures: Crude edges down but amid geopolitics and glut concerns
- Crude oil futures were moving sideways to lower Tuesday as geopolitical tensions bumped up against nagging concerns over a 2026 supply glut.
- Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.38/b (2010 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $63.17/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $58.62/b against a previous close of $59.32/b.
- Benchmarks steadied early in the week after OPEC+ confirmed the decision to leave Q1 production unchanged, but have struggled to hold gains amid the oversupply concerns.
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