In today’s briefing:
- Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T
- Resilience Is Reinstating
- Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate
- [IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In
- Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed
- Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?
- China is a growth stock, not a value stock
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -26 September 2025
- Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand
- CX Daily: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment
Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T
- Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
- Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
- Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.
Resilience Is Reinstating
- Falling US jobless claims and bullish GDP revisions are reinstating evidence of ongoing resilience. Underlying GDP only slowed by about 0.1pp in H1, or 15% of 2024’s average.
- Risk management rate cuts to balance the higher costs of being wrong on the downside raise the probability that easing proves premature and swiftly ends.
- The ECB already sees the transmission of its past cuts trending loan growth higher. It may reach pressures consistent with hikes next year, and it already clashes with easing.
Oil futures: Crude extends gains as drone strikes on Russia escalate
- Crude oil futures were challenging monthly highs Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains as investors eyed threats to oil supplies, including Russian diesel, after the latest spate of refinery attacks.
- Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.13/b (2010 BST) versus Tuesday’s settle of $67.63/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.86/b against a previous close of $63.41/b.
- Benchmarks have largely been rangebound in September with markets torn between supply disruptions and concerns over a Q4 supply glut as OPEC+ continues its unwinding program.
[IO Technicals 2025/39] Iron Ore Rally Wobbles as Policy Push and Supply Hiccups Already Priced In
- Citi warns iron ore’s rally is overstretched, with policy support and supply disruptions priced in, leaving limited upside ahead.
- Managed Money participants are ramping up net long exposure, underscoring renewed bullish sentiment and rising confidence in stronger demand and price gains.
- Iron ore’s momentum is fading as Bollinger Bands and MACD flash bearish signals, with sellers gaining control and downside risks rising.
Oil futures: Crude eases from highs, Russia disruptions eyed
- Crude oil futures eased back from multi-week highs Thursday amid profit taking but remained at the top end of the summer trading range.
- Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $68.80/b (0945 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $69.31/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $64.45/b against a previous close of $64.99/b.
- Prices slipped after hitting the highest levels since July on what was put down to profit-taking, but concerns over Russian supplies continued to underpin the relatively elevated levels.
Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?
- Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
- Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
- Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.
China is a growth stock, not a value stock
China is building a whole new operating system for its economy, just as Apple built iOS.
We need to judge China accordingly, as Steve Job’s Apple, not Jack Welch’s GE
A multi-polar world is now one of two operating systems. We need to make sure our investments can run on both.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments -26 September 2025
Asian exports remained resilient, led by Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, though Japan showed clear trade weakness.
The US economy continues expanding but faces risks from an inverted yield curve, dollar weakness, and Trump tariffs.
Massive technology investment raises growth hopes, but skilled labor shortages and heavy import reliance limit sustainable impact.
Cambodia Rubber Sector Gains Traction Amid Rising Domestic Demand
- Rubber exports rebound in July, lifting Cambodia’s monthly earnings
- Domestic consumption surges 76%, reshaping supply-demand dynamics
- Smallholder reforms push sector toward increased efficiency
CX Daily: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment
- Policy /In Depth: Beijing Bets on New Policy Tool to Bolster Emerging Sector Investment
- WTO /: China to Give Up Special Treatment in Future WTO Talks, Premier Says
- Beverages /: Beverage Giant Wahaha to Abandon Eponymous Brand Name
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
