Daily Brief Macro: Cutting After Pauses and more

• The BoE and Fed rarely resume cutting cycles after a pause, yet the Fed seems set to break its hold with a cut just as the BoE and ECB enter their own pauses.
• 2002-03 is the best historical parallel for the Fed, which signals potential cuts should be shallow and are likely to be reversed. Politics is no match for the fundamental need.
• Persistently excessive UK pressures should prevent the BoE from cutting in November or beyond, with a quarterly pause historically unlikely to resolve in another rate cut.

This Week’s Key Take Aways

• Volatility suggests markets are not concerned about…anything.
• Crude has a down month.
• Industrials have had a great 8 months, will it continue?
• Renewable investment growth continues, everywhere but the US.
• The market has pre-priced in cuts; will it subdue the economic impact?

• Livestreaming /In Depth: East Buy’s earnings fizzle with the exit of one livestreamer
• Mental /In Depth: Rural China suffers a teen mental health crisis
• Vietnam /: How Chinese manufacturing turned Bac Ninh into a Vietnamese boomtown

•  U.S. tariffs and low-cost Asian imports reshape Brazil’s tire industry  
• ADD on Chinese passenger tires renewed to shield local producers  
• Michelin to shut down its Guarulhos plant in Sao Paulo by Dec 2025