In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets
- [ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
- HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data
CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets
- Autos /: Chinese carmakers expand into growing Central Asian markets
- Corruption /: Former ICBC banker gets suspended death sentence for graft
- Meituan /: Meituan to provide social security benefits for delivery riders
[ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap
- For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. crude inventories increased by 4.6m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 3.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks dropped more than expected.
- U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 196 Bcf for the week ending 14/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 191 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
- Occidental’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose 8.1% YoY, beating estimates by 18.1%. However, it posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Wolfe Research, UBS, and Susquehanna raised price targets.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025
- Indonesia’s Growth Concerns: Questioning the reliability of Indonesia’s steady 5% GDP growth, highlighting high real lending rates and the need for interest rate cuts to spur private investment.
Japan’s Economic Weakness: Stripping out net exports, Japan’s GDP growth is flat, with rising wages squeezing profits, raising concerns about economic sustainability despite positive headline figures.
Thailand’s Investment Issues: Thailand’s GDP growth of 2.5% masks weak private sector investment, with public spending driving growth but failing to translate into meaningful private sector expansion.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024
- The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) confirmed that economic activity closed 2024 with an annual growth rate of 1.5%.
- In this context, we will be revising our 2025 growth forecast from 1.2% down to 0.8%, while maintaining our forecast for 2026 at 1.9%.
- We anticipate a successful renegotiation of the USMCA, though not without some ups and downs during the process.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
- We estimate that inflation for the first half of February will come in at 0.09% bw, due to the drop in agricultural prices.
- Inflation for this period is typically around 0.17% bw.
- Our low estimate is explained by a -4.93% bw generalized decline in agricultural prices, specifically among tomatoes and onions.
HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data
- This week, the flurry of hawkish UK data extended into a torrent, with unemployment, wages, inflation, retail sales, and the flash PMI drowning dovish assumptions. Repriced rates don’t reflect the reality in the macro data where reversing hikes may be needed.
- Final Euro area inflation data and monetary policy decisions from Korea and Thailand are highlights incapable of changing global narratives. Negotiated EA wage data, policy speeches, and Trump’s regular shouting into the void may dominate instead.
- Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to [email protected]).
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