Daily Brief Macro: ECB: Watching the Good Place and more

• The ECB kept its description of the policy setting as in a good place, and wants to watch the news in the next few months. Lagarde refused to emphasise September’s meeting.
• Euro strength is depressing inflation below target in the near-term forecasts, but the ECB remains relaxed about this. It sees the outlook as broadly unchanged since June.
• We still see rolling resilience in the economy and doubt US trade policy will break it. More rate cuts are inappropriate without demand destruction, so we don’t expect any.

• China’s economic malaise will not end until its housing market clears and households have sufficiently rebuilt their savings. These adjustments are far from complete. 
• Continued declines in housing prices across major and smaller urban areas suggest that prices have further to fall, while housing demand and supply are still sluggish. 
• Households also remain defensive, with deposit growth outstripping income growth by a large margin. The economic headwinds will entrench precautionary savings behaviour.

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• Discussion on recent global asset trends and market news, including inflation, Fed rate cuts, and Trump’s tariff threats
• Mention of interns from CUNY City Tech helping with macro database analysis and highlighting Ethereum’s strong performance in the market.

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