In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing
- [IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction
- CX Daily: Key Challenges China’s Next Five-Year Plan Needs to Tackle
- [ETP 2025/27] WTI Volatile on Supply Risks; Henry Hub Slips on Softer Demand Outlook
- Tire Giants Redraw India Playbooks; Indian Firms Rework Overseas
HEW: Payrolls Waking Up Rates Pricing
- Dovish rate pricing had been ignoring resilient data until US payrolls delivered a rude awakening. We believe rates remain too dovish relative to reality and equity prices.
- BoE surveys also revealed resilience in defiance of dovish pricing, while the rise in EA unemployment merely matched ECB forecasts and was heavily reliant on Italy.
- Next week’s deadline for US tariffs is the main risk event, as not all countries will likely get an extension. Monetary policy decisions come from the RBA, RBNZ, BNM, and BOK.
[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction
- Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.
- Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.
- Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.
CX Daily: Key Challenges China’s Next Five-Year Plan Needs to Tackle
- Policy / In Depth: Key challenges China’s next five-year plan needs to tackle
- Chip /: U.S. lifts export ban on chip design software to China amid trade thaw
- Regulators /Exclusive: Two securities officials fall to their deaths amid China’s graft sweep
[ETP 2025/27] WTI Volatile on Supply Risks; Henry Hub Slips on Softer Demand Outlook
- For the week ending 27/Jun, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 3.5m barrel decline). Gasoline stockpiles rose more than expected.
- The EIA reported a 55 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 48 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.2% above the five-year average but 5.6% below year-ago levels.
- BlackRock may offload its gas pipeline stake back to Aramco, while JP Morgan cut its 12-month PT on SLB and Goldman Sachs did the same for Halliburton.
Tire Giants Redraw India Playbooks; Indian Firms Rework Overseas
- Continental, Michelin, Bridgestone pivot to premium with local focus
- MRF expands in EV, defence, and export markets amid capacity growth
- Apollo restructures in Europe, bolstering premium bicycle
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