In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves
- Malaysia Economics: Can Malaysia Become Southeast Asia’s Quiet Success Story?
- Oil futures: Crude consolidates firm weekly gains on Russia tensions
- Actinver Research – Trade Balance (August 2025)
- CX Daily: Starbucks, Burger King Overhaul China Strategies
HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves
- Bullish GDP revisions and jobless claims provided further reminders that the economy is much more resilient than market pricing has dovishly assumed, causing a hawkish shift.
- Nonetheless, the Riksbank surprised with a 25bp rate cut, but projected that as the terminal rate before hikes start reversing the stimulative setting in 2026.
- Next week’s US payrolls data dominates the calendar, given the potential to break market conviction in an October Fed cut. EA inflation should rise back above the target.
Malaysia Economics: Can Malaysia Become Southeast Asia’s Quiet Success Story?
- Domestic consumption is boosted by a continued expansion of the middle class, a process set to accelerate from wage-uplifting policies. A boom in inbound tourism is a further boon.
- Capital formation, long considered a relative weak spot, will also benefit from a strong pipeline of committed investments. Progress in policy catalysts may provide more upsides.
- The country’s politics has gotten a bad reputation after previous episodes of scandal and instability, but the institutional guardrails proved effective in limiting outbreaks of unrest.
Oil futures: Crude consolidates firm weekly gains on Russia tensions
- Crude futures steadied Friday as oil headed for the strongest weekly gains since June, coming amid disruptions to Russian fuel supplies and heightened tensions between Moscow and NATO.
- Front-month Nov25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $69.53/b (0925 BST) versus Thursday’s settle of $69.42/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $65.17/b against a previous close of $64.98/b.
- Fuel shortages in Russia have forced Moscow to extend the ban on gasoline exports and restrict overseas diesel sales.
Actinver Research – Trade Balance (August 2025)
- Between January and August of this year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 528 million.
- Manufacturing exports maintained their resilience, growing 6.5% y/y over the same period, which has supported the dynamics of economic activity so far this year.
- In August, the trade deficit amounted to USD 1,944 million, compared to our estimated deficit of USD 962 million and the consensus deficit of USD 2,600 million.
CX Daily: Starbucks, Burger King Overhaul China Strategies
- Restaurants /In Depth: Starbucks, Burger King Overhaul China Strategies
- Shipping /: China Launches 18-Day Arctic Shipping Route to Europe Amid Global Trade Turmoil
- Corruption /: How a Chinese Police Chief Cashed In on a Pre-IPO Chip Venture
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