In today’s briefing:
- [IO Technicals 2025/34] Iron Ore Braces for Bullish Shift After Six-Day Slide
- How To Bet Against The Bubble… Without Going Bust
- Asian Equity: As the Result Season Nears Its End, Asian EPS Estimates Suffer a Surprising Downgrade
- Indonesia Economics: 2026 Budget Stretches Credibility
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 22 August 2025
- Deals, Recycling, Research And AI Power Thailand’s Rubber Shift
- CX Daily: Coding Jobs No Longer Sure Thing for U.S.-Educated Chinese
[IO Technicals 2025/34] Iron Ore Braces for Bullish Shift After Six-Day Slide
- Iron ore drops on Tangshan curbs, but stable hot metal output underpins near-term price support.
- Managed money participants remain net long in iron ore, but softer buying momentum signalled profit-taking.
- Mean reversion and bullish MA crossover signal upside potential for the 62%/65% spread.
How To Bet Against The Bubble… Without Going Bust
- Markets feel frothy right now – sentiment’s euphoric, valuations are near the ceiling – but trying to call the exact top is usually a losing game.
- It may be tempting to short the market, but the smarter move is to use efficient, asymmetric hedges: trades that don’t cost but pay out big when things crack.
- Right now, these hedges’ prospects are unusually attractive: risks are stacked high, but insurance – volatility – is still relatively cheap
Asian Equity: As the Result Season Nears Its End, Asian EPS Estimates Suffer a Surprising Downgrade
- As the earnings reporting season nears completion, our EPS estimate tracker reveals a downgrade to Asian EPS. AxJ EPS declined only 0.5%-0.8%. But several constituent markets’ EPS declined much more.
- Asian EPS estimates were supported by China and somewhat surprisingly, Thailand. Indian estimates continued to decline. Even Korea and Taiwan, the recent earnings outperformers, were downgraded during this season.
- Unlike Asia, US EPS estimates rose during this season. Japan’s and Europe’s declined. In a subsequent note we shall track the estimates of all the sectors in each Asian Market.
Indonesia Economics: 2026 Budget Stretches Credibility
- The first full-year budget of the Prabowo government envisions continued adherence to the country’s strict fiscal rules.
- The fiscal assumptions on growth, revenue, and expenditures, however, are far from conservative. This exerts risks to the fiscal consolidation path.
- A medium-term goal of balancing the budget by 2028 is unattainable given the government’s spending commitments and headwinds to the economy.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 22 August 2025
Asian economies remain resilient in H1 2025, though global weakness and tariffs could pressure exports in the second half.
Current market strength echoes 2007, masking underlying US and European economic softness with risks of a sharp reversal.
China’s headline data looks soft, but domestic demand, liquidity, and appliance sales suggest resilience despite persistent property sector weakness.
Deals, Recycling, Research And AI Power Thailand’s Rubber Shift
- Bridgestone reshapes carbon black strategy with Tokai Carbon
- Hanwa invests in Thai tyre pyrolysis venture
- Sri Trang bets on AI and workforce upskilling
CX Daily: Coding Jobs No Longer Sure Thing for U.S.-Educated Chinese
- Jobs /In Depth: Coding jobs no longer sure thing for U.S.-educated Chinese
- Commodity/: Hong Kong joins LME’s global delivery system with eight certified warehouses
- Delivery /: Couriers hike prices in face of toxic competition crackdown
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
