Daily Brief Macro: Russia/Ukraine: What Now? and more

• A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
• Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
• Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

• The current neglect on the role played by money supply and the monetary base is, in our view a serious analytical gap
• In a nutshell, we think private money growth – defined as M2 minus monetary base- is right now in a Goldilocks phase. This augurs well for US inflation
• With the Fed inclined to ease rather than tighten, and with inflation shocks likely to prove one-off, risk assets remain supported

• U.S. LNG capacity is set to nearly double by 2028, reinforcing America’s dominance in global energy markets.
• Golden Pass LNG faces major delays due to contractor bankruptcy, highlighting execution risks in megaprojects.
• Most other projects, including Plaquemines, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur LNG, remain on or near schedule.

• Stocks / Cover Story: China’s stock market roars back to life — but can it outrun economic gravity?
• Trade /: China offers Brazil’s coffee-makers a partial escape from U.S. tariffs
• Chips /: AI chipmaker Cambricon inches closer to becoming China’s priciest stock

• Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm at levels that incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Firm margins point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.
• Margins hold firm even with prospect of rise in surplus base oils supply in Asia in Q3 2025 in response to pick-up in output and slowdown in demand.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish signal at Jackson Hole boosted markets and broke a five-day losing streak
• July Fed minutes showed a hawkish tone regarding inflation risk and reluctance to cut rates, but Powell hinted at possible rate cut in September
• US labor market concerns deepen with rising jobless claims, while housing market shows weakness and retail sales increase 4% in July; Canada to remove half of retaliatory tariffs on US goods

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• Europe Group I brightstock price stays unusually firm relative to light and heavy neutrals so far in Q3 2025.
• Europe Group I brightstock price stays unusually firm versus feedstock vacuum gasoil price so far in Q3 2025.
• Europe Group I export brightstock price maintains steep premium to imported cargo prices in markets like India.

• Global base oils prices hold at levels versus feedstock and competing fuel prices that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.
• Margins hold firm even at time of year when surplus supply typically starts to build amid seasonal slowdown in demand.
• Firm margins could point to supply-demand fundamentals that are tighter than usual for time of year.

• US base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of healthy availability of supply and lower crude/diesel prices.
• Weaker fundamentals and lower feedstock prices increase exposure to risk of drop in outright prices.
• Recent drop in Group I/Group II domestic prices could ease some of the downward price-pressure.

• The S&P GSCI (GSG) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM ETF) are the two key benchmarks for commodity investing, but both track futures contracts, not spot prices.
• Over 10 years, spot oil, copper, and gold rose strongly, yet these indices delivered flat to negative returns due to roll yield drag, rebalancing, and higher fees.
• They work best as tactical inflation hedges — GSCI for high-beta oil exposure, BCOM for more diversified commodity exposure — not as long-term compounding assets.