In today’s briefing:
- UK CPI Trips Into The Fall
- EMERGING THEMES: China’s Next 5 Year Plan
- Oil futures: Crude sees late-day rebound amid trade headwinds, supply glut
- China’s Expanding Crude Inventories Keep Oil Prices in Check
- Vietnam Rubber Market Recalibrates On Firming Prices, China Demand
- Indonesia Pauses Easing on FX Pressures
- Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide
- CX Daily: Desperate for Smart Driving Tech, State Carmakers Turn to Huawei
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 20 October
UK CPI Trips Into The Fall
- UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
- Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
- Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.
EMERGING THEMES: China’s Next 5 Year Plan
- China will roll out its 2026 – 2030 five-year plan this month, which outline the economic and social roadmap until the end of the decade.
- Historically the five-year plans have been a roadmap for investors to look for tailwinds for economic sector performance. We believe the high-tech industries will remain the main focus for investment.
- Exporters of high-end equipment and machinery will continue to benefit with the consumption sector being a focus for international investors.
Oil futures: Crude sees late-day rebound amid trade headwinds, supply glut
- Crude oil futures initially struggled Tuesday as global trade tensions and supply glut fears continued to drag on prices before a late-day rebound lifted benchmarks into positive territory on the day.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.37/b (2010 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $61.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.32/b against a previous close of $57.02/b.
- Oil markets continued to face growing headwinds, including the latest round of anti-trade measures between Washington and Beijing, putting global economic growth at risk.
China’s Expanding Crude Inventories Keep Oil Prices in Check
- China’s aggressive crude stockpiling through 2025 has quietly reduced global supply, cushioning oil prices against a surplus-driven downturn amid OPEC+ supply hikes.
- By absorbing excess barrels when prices fall and easing purchases when they rise, China’s flexible buying strategy has emerged as a stabilising force in global oil markets.
- With inventories estimated between 1.4 and 2 billion barrels, China’s future buying pace will hinge on price trends, geopolitical pressures, and internal reserve targets.
Vietnam Rubber Market Recalibrates On Firming Prices, China Demand
- Vietnam exports 1.12 million tons of rubber in Jan–Aug
- Exports to China up 5.9% in volume; value surges 22%
- Typhoon Kajiki causes brief disruptions, but exports stay firm
Indonesia Pauses Easing on FX Pressures
- BI held rates at 4.75%, surprising consensus expectations of a 25bp cut. The pause addresses rupiah stability concerns amid USD5.26bn capital outflows.
- Inflation is benign at 2.65% (core 2.19%) within the target range. Enhanced macroprudential policy is complementing easing with credit growth incentives.
- Further cuts are likely as the Fed eases, depending on rupiah stability, credit transmission effectiveness, and fiscal-monetary policy coordination.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Vietnam Equities: GI Bond Probe Triggers 8% Index Slide
- Release sparks sell-off: Vietnam’s government inspectorate released findings October 17th. Despite widespread anticipation of the findings, Vietnamese equities were down sharply following the release.
- Fault lines and risk nodes: 5 listed banks, Masan entities, T&T Group, project vehicles, and Novaland affiliates. Issues include disclosure failures, off-plan proceeds use, arrears, and single-buyer concentrations.
- Signal and policy path: Expect a stricter rulebook and more active supervision. The core system remains intact, but governance discounts rise, and issuance windows narrow as controls are rebuilt.
CX Daily: Desperate for Smart Driving Tech, State Carmakers Turn to Huawei
- Autos / In Depth: Desperate for Smart Driving Tech, State Carmakers Turn to Huawei
- HKMA /Interview: HKMA’s Fintech Chief on Forging Hong Kong’s Digital Asset Future
- Policy /Beijing Fast-Tracks $42 Billion Through Policy Banks to Revive Growth
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 20 October
- US base oils prices rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for Group II light-grade export prices.
- Firmer margins point to steady-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals at a time of year when they typically start to weaken.
- Firmer margins incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
