In today’s briefing:
- UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day
- Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks
- De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America
- Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
- Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
- Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025
- CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza
UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day
- The balance of seats Labour loses to Reform UK, compared to the LibDems and Greens, could be crucial in internal party disputes.
- The outcomes of the local elections on 1 May could significantly influence this balance.
- A concurrent by-election also stands to have a significant impact on government policy.
Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks
- We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
- We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
- We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.
De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America
- After much talk about de-risking from China, countries are now applying the same lens in reviewing their economic, security, and technological dependencies on the US.
- Countries will seek to expand and deepen trading links with other partners, but it will be hard to fully compensate for the closing down of the world’s largest consumer market.
- No economic or geopolitical law mandates the existence of a global hegemon. The economic and security order is becoming more fragmented and decentralized.
Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
- Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb
- Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb
- Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million
Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
- Happy Monday from a sunny Copenhagen! We have been banging the drum on the similarities between the tariffs-cycle and the Covid-cycle over the past month, and we are increasingly confident that the playbook holds true.
- The kind of stop/go dynamics look clearly similar as a policy shock nukes the cycle, while the “solution” is to roll back the shock gradually.
- A lockdown before a reopening essentially.
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
- Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
- High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
- More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.
Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way
- Financial markets were recently frightened by the spectre of President Trump replacing Fed Chairman Powell before his term expires, but the era of peak Fed credibility has elapsed.
- President Trump’s criticism of the Fed has some validity. The nexus between the Fed and the Treasury during Biden administration became tighter, thereby helping to facilitate profligate fiscal policy conduct.
- The Fed will not offer updated forward guidance until June, but markets are discounting three policy rate reductions in 2025.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025
Bank Indonesia maintains high rates despite economic strain; Korea shows early signs of slowdown with weak investment and trade data.
India’s domestic economy remains strong, but early PMI data’s significance is limited.
U.S. trade policy assumptions collapse as tariffs rise and the dollar weakens, exposing flaws in anti-China strategies.
CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back
- Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back
- China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says
- Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza
- The past week saw insights on Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ), Shakey’s Pizza (PIZZA PM), Spindex Industries (SPE SP), and Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)
- There was also a macro insight on Indonesia after its rate decision, an insight on the upcoming index rebalance in Indonesia, and a Singapore banks insight from Daniel Tabbush
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable macro and equity bottom insights from across Southeast Asia.
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