Daily Brief Macro: UK: Poor Productivity Paradigms and more

• The OBR looks likely to trim its productivity trend assumption to 1%, which would still be a bullish break from the current stagnation. Trends rarely break outside recessions.
• High taxes are squeezing the most productive and being transferred to the inactive. It should not be surprising that the UK’s political choices have stalled productivity.
• We see no reason to think the UK will pull off an internationally exceptional jobs-light boom from here. Ongoing stagnation would extend the UK’s rule for fiscal slippage.

• Shift in capital flows and rise of domestic emerging market investors
• Discussion with experts in UAE and Singapore on their experiences and perspectives
• Impact of global events like financial crisis and COVID on emerging markets and expat communities

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• Market sentiment on rate cutting and its impact on the housing market in 2026 is largely optimistic
• Home prices are up two and a half percent through June but have been declining month-over-month
• Housing supply at a national level is back to pre-Covid levels, transitioning to a buyer’s market from a seller’s market with strong mortgage credit but affordability challenges due to higher rates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Crude oil futures Thursday were drifting lower with the market looking for direction, although concerns over a supply glut remain the dominant factor.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $65.01/b (2025 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $66.25/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $61.31/b against a previous close of $62.55/b.
• Analysts are increasingly moving towards the supply glut scenario, particularly after OPEC+ made its intension clear with a further quota increase for November among the eight members taking part in voluntary cuts.

• Debt / In Depth: The Unfinished Transformation of China’s LGFVs
• Port /: U.S. Details Steep Port Fees on China-Linked Vessels Starting Oct. 14
• Foreign reserves /: China’s Foreign Reserves Edge Higher in September as Global Bonds Rally

• Highlights    • Market shift from premium to mid-tier brands   • Profit vs volume strategy hurting premium brands   • Mid-Tier brands expanding globally There is a lot of uncertainty around the ongoing tire demand and supply situation.
• The first thing to note is that while demand is growing slightly, the distribution of sales between premium tire makers and less well-known brands is changing.
• The transfer of market share away from the premium tire makers is rapid and appears to be accelerating.

• Japan’s new leadership under Takaichi promises more fiscal stimulus and low rates, risking higher inflation and political instability.

• Thailand faces economic concerns like weak consumer confidence and high debt, with uncertain monetary policy.

• Vietnam’s economy is booming with 8.2% GDP growth in Q3, though risks from US exports and transshipment could threaten stability.

• Centre releases Rs.10.9 bln as 1st installment of untied grants for RLBs in 2 states
• FICCI survey shows strong manufacturing growth in Q2 FY 26
• India likely to have surplus sugar production in sugar season 2025-26

• BSP cut rates 25bp to 4.75% surprising market expectations for a pause, citing a weakened growth outlook from infrastructure governance concerns.
• Benign inflation at 1.7%, well below the 2-4% target, provides scope for accommodation despite electricity and rice tariff upside risks.
• Further easing is likely in December as BSP signals the policy “sweet spot” is lower than expected amid persistent growth headwinds.