In today’s briefing:
- UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2
- [IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore
- CX Daily: How a Tycoon Looted Billions of Yuan From a State-Backed Portv
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 15 August 2025
- Norway: Holds Steady on Easing Path In August
UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2
- June’s remarkable rebound compounded the resilience revealed by April’s upwards revision, which also broke flimsy fundamental stories blaming tariffs for a slowdown.
- IP no longer declined in April, but the broader growth profile still matches the residual seasonality that spuriously drives GDP dynamics in our forecast. H2 will be weaker.
- The BoE discounts headline GDP volatility without blaming seasonality, so another surprisingly strong quarter will be hard for hawks to ignore, reducing the rate cut risk.
[IO Technicals 2025/33] China Woes Deepen, Bearish Momentum Grips Iron Ore
- China’s July lending drop signals weak private sector appetite, while severe weather hampers outdoor construction.
- Managed money participants trimmed net long futures exposure amid rising prices, signalling profit-taking.
- Bullish momentum has faded as prices dip below key moving averages and MACD signals growing seller control in the market.
CX Daily: How a Tycoon Looted Billions of Yuan From a State-Backed Portv
- On July 25, Jinzhou Port Co. Ltd. became the first port operator to be kicked off a Chinese mainland stock exchange.
The delisting came after the securities watchdog determined the company had fabricated more than 8.6 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) in revenue and nearly 180 million yuan in profit between 2018 and 2021.
On its last A-share trading day, Jinzhou Port’s market value stood at 1.26 billion yuan, a staggering 80% collapse since the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) started investigating the company in late 2023.
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 15 August 2025
Thailand cuts rates to 1.5% amid weak loan growth, but structural reforms and confidence restoration are needed for lasting recovery.
China’s strong money supply growth counters deflation concerns, though policy risks from propping up inefficient firms remain.
US policy noise and tariffs push India toward renewed trade ties with China, hinting at a possible “Chindiya” bloc revival.
Norway: Holds Steady on Easing Path In August
- Norges Bank unsurprisingly held rates at 4.25% as expected, maintaining a restrictive stance while inflation persists above 2% target.
- The central bank signals 1-2 more cuts as likely in 2025 if the economy evolves as projected, with a September reduction widely anticipated by markets.
- Trade policy uncertainty and sticky services inflation create upside risks, but the gradual normalisation path remains intact barring shocks.
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